Don’t think for a second there will not be controversy with the 12-team College Football Playoff format.
We found that out while putting together our projections for the 2024-25 college football postseason. Rematches – particularly involving SEC and Big Ten teams – are inevitable. Probable in some cases, when you look at our 12-team field.
Remember, in the new 12-team setup the five conference champions ranked highest by the College Football Playoff committee will get automatic bids. The four highest-ranked conference champions – likely coming from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC – will get first-round byes. That means the rankings in the polls won’t always match the seedings. With that, controversy always follows.
Georgia and Ohio State will be popular picks to reach the College Football Playoff national championship game, but how those schools negotiate the 12-team setup remains to be seen. That was part of the fun in plotting out the first playoff projections of the new era.
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The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 20, and three on Saturday, Dec. 21. The quarterfinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The semifinals will be played at the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 10). The CFP national championship is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
With that in mind, here are our predictions for the first 12-team College Football Playoff:
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A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:
Again? Alabama and Clemson met four times in the four-team College Football Playoff, and that included three national championship games. The coaching matchup between Kalen DeBoer and Dabo Swinney will generate more than enough conversation here, and Nick Saban’s presence will be felt in the first on-campus playoff game at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
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Memphis averaged 39.4 points per game and returns quarterback Seth Henigan (3,883 yards, 32 TDs, 9 INTs), which makes them a popular pick to the Group of 5 bid in this year’s playoff. The Tigers play Florida State in non-conference play, too. A trip to Texas will open the Dec. 21 triple-header action.
The Ducks are a popular national championship sleeper in their first season of Big Ten play, and Dillon Gabriel is among the Heisman Trophy favorites. Ole Miss has a favorable schedule and will snag the SEC’s last CFP spot. Which coach – Dan Lanning or Lane Kiffin – will make the game-defining decision in this one?
The Wolverines and Irish have not met since 2019. Notre Dame will ride a very similar formula to the CFP that Michigan took to a national championship last season, one that includes a nasty defense and turnover-free football. This game would be a throwback to their 1990s instant classics.
A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
The Big 12 is wide open. Utah is the safest pick to win that conference, and Kansas State and Oklahoma State could be in the conversation for a second bid. Unfortunately, this game would not be on campus. The Irish might still be favored here, and the quarterback matchup between veterans Cam Rising and Riley Leonard will be fun.
Rematches are unavoidable. The Bulldogs play at Alabama on Sept. 28, and it is feasible these teams could meet in the SEC championship game in Atlanta on Dec. 7. This matchup would matter more than the other two – and that is going to be one of the adjustments college football fans will have to make in 2024.
Again, a rematch – a could-be three-match between the Buckeyes and Ducks. Ohio State travels to Oregon on Oct. 12, and these two teams will be the preseason favorites to play in the Big Ten championship game. The irony of playing this game at the Rose Bowl is not lost on us. Ohio State beat Oregon 42-20 in the first CFP championship game on Jan. 12, 2015.
The Seminoles make the CFP this time as the ACC champion, and they get a blockbuster matchup against Texas – one of the one-loss teams that made the CFP last season. There would be more than enough ACC vs. SEC heat in this matchup, which would be the first matchup between the schools. That is a win in the 12-team format.
A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
Georgia plays at Texas on Oct. 19, and the potential for a matchup in the SEC championship game there is another heavy rematch probability here. The Longhorns would be on their third playoff game, and Georgia it is worth knowing the Bulldogs were 3-0 in CFP semifinals in the four-team era.
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These teams met the last two seasons, and the Buckeyes pulled out a 17-14 victory in South Bend in 2023. That led to Ryan Day’s rant toward Lou Holtz, and that will be fresh in mind for both sides in a semifinal setting. The programs have played six times since 1995, and Ohio State is 6-0 in those matchups.
A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
This will be the national title game pick in most preseason publications. Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41 on Dec. 31, 2022 in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. Both teams have to go through super-conference schedules and a new playoff path, and there could be surprises like there was in 2014 – when the Buckeyes won the first four-team CFP as a No. 4 seed. Still, these are the two best teams in the country – and we’ll be pointing to this epic showdown all season.
Bill Bender is a national college football writer for The Sporting News.
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