Kyle Bonn
Lionel Messi and Argentina find themselves in an unexpectedly precarious position atop the World Cup qualifying standings as they host CONMEBOL minnows Bolivia on Tuesday evening.
The Albiceleste face a double barrel of awkwardness having disappointingly drawn Venezuela on the weekend while traditional bottom-feeders Bolivia stunned Colombia to pull themselves into the thick of qualification. In fact, Argentina only remain in first place thanks to Colombia’s upset, who squandered an opportunity to leapfrog Messi and company.
This fixture has usually been a foregone conclusion, as Bolivia have traditionally struggled away from their La Paz fortress and playing against an international giant on the road has proven too tall a task. Yet in this moment, with Argentina suddenly vulnerable and Bolivia riding a good run of form, there are some whispers that this time could be different.
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Bolivia haven’t beaten Argentina since a 2-0 World Cup qualifying win at home in 2017, and they have never beaten Argentina on the road.
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There’s no question that Bolivia have improved in the past few months, and they will make things tough on a short-handed Argentina.
Any expectations of a first-ever win in Buenos Aires should be well short of the mark, but a draw is well within their reach. With such skewed odds towards the reigning World Cup and Copa America winners, there’s enormous value on the visitors pulling out an upset.
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There’s absolutely reason to believe that Bolivia can find a goal in this match, something they’ve failed to accomplish in each of the last five matches in Argentina.
This Argentina side is injury-stricken, without workhorse Nico Gonzalez and Marcos Acuna, while Alexis Mac Allister isn’t fully fit and Alejandro Garnacho withdrew from the squad. They were, incredibly, out-shot by Venezuela last time out, by a 16-8 margin (6-4 on target).
Match that up against Bolivia, who are in exceptional attacking form over the last three games, and it could be trouble. La Verde managed to put up 14 shots on Colombia at home while playing a man down, scored twice at Chile despite just five total shots, and ripped off four goals on Venezuela with 19 total shots.
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While we believe Bolivia can find the net, we also know the match will be cagey. The goal-scoring odds are extremely juiced considering Argentina’s history against Bolivia, having put at least three goals past their opponents in each of the last three meetings, but this isn’t the same Bolivia they’ll be up against.
Under the leadership of new manager Oscar Villegas, Bolivia have blanked Colombia and Venezuela and conceded just once to Chile on the road.
Meanwhile, Argentina looked listless for long stretches against Venezuela, even with Lionel Messi on the field. Lionel Scaloni doesn’t traditionally look to blow teams out, instead pushing to control games and win 2-0. This could be cagey, especially if Bolivia continue to look as organized as they have in recent games.
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Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.
