Week 8 arrived with some big surprises and shakeups, starting with Jameis Winston and the Browns pulling off a dramatic upset over the Ravens, adding a major wrinkle to the AFC North race. In Indianapolis, the Colts made waves by benching Anthony Richardson — a bittersweet development for fantasy managers since, unfortunately, his benching could boost production for the Colts’ receivers. But let’s be honest, their volume only matters if they hold onto the ball after a week riddled with drops. Meanwhile, the Patriots managed to edge out a divisional win over the Jets, adding to New York’s struggles and stirring up the AFC East standings.
And perhaps the biggest news for fantasy managers was the Ravens’ acquisition of Diontae Johnson in a trade, a move that will likely hurt the fantasy value of Baltimore’s existing pass-catchers. With Johnson now a featured option, the Ravens’ target share will see a significant shift, affecting everyone from Zay Flowers to Mark Andrews. As we dive into the player stats from Week 8, we’ll also look at who might emerge in the coming weeks amid these league-wide changes.
As we look ahead to Week 9, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!
Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
1D/RR: 0.053
Result: 3 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.8 (half-PPR)
Noah Brown‘s fantasy value got a miraculous boost thanks to one of the most improbable plays of the week. With just a 0.053 1D/RR, he wasn’t exactly racking up first downs, but he managed to turn an otherwise quiet day into a memorable one by catching Jayden Daniels‘ last-second Hail Mary. That single play saved his day for fantasy managers, turning an underwhelming performance into an unexpected highlight. While it’s always thrilling to see a receiver haul in a deep bomb, Brown’s production remains spotty, and counting on heroics like this each week would be risky.
1D/RR: 0.273
Result: 7 receptions, 106 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.1 (half-PPR)
Puka Nacua‘s return from IR was nothing short of a highlight reel. Despite running just 22 routes, he still managed to eclipse the 100-yard mark, showing exactly why he’s become such a crucial weapon in the Rams’ offense. His impressive 0.273 1D/RR highlights how efficient he was, converting each reception into a meaningful gain. This performance, paired with a big Rams victory over the Vikings, might just keep Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford rooted in Los Angeles as the trade deadline approaches.
Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!
TPRR: 0.103
Result: 2 receptions, 35 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 16.5 (half-PPR)
Yet another Ram appears in this week’s breakdown, as Matthew Stafford continues to be the WR kingmaker. This time it’s Demarcus Robinson who made his entire fantasy day on just two receptions — both for touchdowns. Overperforming his modest 0.103 TPRR, Robinson capitalized on two sharp plays with Stafford to find the end zone each time, showing his knack for making high-value catches. While it’s tempting to hope for more consistent production, Robinson’s low target rate signals he’s still very much a boom-or-bust option. However, with Stafford at the helm, he’s got a puncher’s chance to deliver big plays when they count.
TPRR: 0.261
Result: 4 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.9 (half-PPR)
Christian Watson had a quieter outing, despite an impressive 0.261 TPRR. In a game that turned out closer than expected against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars, Watson’s potential was evident, even if the numbers didn’t fully show it. With one of his best target shares yet, the foundation is there for him to start putting up some strong performances. If he can sustain this kind of involvement in Green Bay’s offense, he’s a prime candidate for some big “boom” games down the stretch. Managers looking for upside should keep an eye on Watson’s progression, as he has the skills and emerging opportunity to make a difference late in the season.
YPRR: 0.368
Result: 2 receptions, 7 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.7 (half-PPR)
Amon-Ra St. Brown made the most of his opportunities, overperforming his strong 0.368 YPRR thanks largely to a well-timed touchdown grab. The Lions have been in such dominant form lately that game scripts haven’t exactly catered to St. Brown racking up massive fantasy points, yet he continues to shine in his role. Jared Goff’s accuracy and precise ball placement have been key to ARSB’s production, allowing him to make the most of each target. Even with Detroit’s recent blowout wins limiting volume, St. Brown’s reliability and connection with Goff keep him a must-start, and he’s poised to capitalize even more when the Lions inevitably face tougher matchups.
YPRR: 4.036
Result: 5 receptions, 113 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.8 (half-PPR)
Garrett Wilson underperformed his outstanding 4.036 YPRR, a number that speaks to his potential, but despite posting 13.8 fantasy points, he left more production on the field than managers would like. The Jets find themselves in a downward spiral, and though Wilson remains a bright spot, the team’s inconsistency has impacted his overall fantasy output. His talent and target share still make him a must-start, yet saying that his performances have satisfied expectations this season would be a stretch. While he’s been solid, it’s clear he’s capable of more — hopefully, the Jets can stabilize enough to let Wilson fully shine.
Week 8 brought a lot of movement across the league and nowhere was that more evident than in PRS. Marvin Harrison Jr. delivered a standout performance against Miami, pushing himself back into the top 24. He’s proving that he can be a reliable weapon. Meanwhile, Josh Downs has held his top-10 PRS position, and with veteran Joe Flacco now under center, the setup for a productive second half is in place — Downs could be a real game-changer down the stretch.
In other news, CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott took fantasy managers on a ride with an absolute barrage of garbage-time points in Week 8, showing us that the Cowboys’ offense can still produce big numbers in challenging game scripts. It’s been a season of twists and turns, but hopefully, these key metrics can help you stay one step ahead. Good luck navigating Week 9!
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