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Startups. Startups. Startups. It is dynasty startup SZN! I know we all return to redraft in the summer months and the best ball streets are all blazing, but this is also the time for dynasty startups. Before you enter another dynasty fantasy football startup, read up on my top five tight end values and run a handful of startup mock drafts with our draft simulator.
A sophomore player who flashed elite upside in his rookie season tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and is surrounded by a bunch of solid but not spectacular wide receivers, and he’s not ranked inside the top three dynasty tight ends? Ummm, yeah. I’ll take this mild discount in every dynasty startup. Dalton Kincaid broke out in his rookie season and there’s no looking back. The second-year receiver buy-in approach applies here. Last year, in Weeks 7-18, he ranked seventh in target share (19.0%), ninth in receiving yards per game (50.5) and first-read share (21.0%) and his yards per route run (YPRR) of 1.85 was 12th. I want to bet on talented players, especially ones entering their second season after a standout rookie year. Kincaid checks all the boxes here.
Kyle Pitts has burned people. They are also still treating third-degree burns from Arthur Smith. I’m not going to lie; it has been a tough ride, but the talent is still there with Pitts, and I’m not running away from that. Finally, he and Drake London have competent quarterback play, which is something we definitely could not say last year. In 2023, Atlanta had the third-lowest catchable target rate and the fifth-lowest accurate throw rate. Those numbers are coming up this year. While most of his numbers were depressed last year because of the putrid passing, the number one metric I always go back to when projecting a high-end ceiling for tight ends (yards per route run vs. man coverage) was still amazing. Last year, Pitts ranked seventh in this metric, immediately behind Travis Kelce. Continue to believe in Pitts. 2024 is the liftoff year.
The Lawmaker. The leader of the Senate. Ben Sinnott is here to bring order back to the rookie tight-end market. Drafting Sinnott as a TE2 in dynasty startups is a gift that won’t last long. Zach Ertz is suppressing the average draft position (ADP) of a ridiculously talented tight end with a clear runway to massive target upside. Could Ertz cap his numbers in Year 1? Sure, it’s possible. That’s why he’s being drafted where he is. I don’t care about that. I want young tight ends that have a stupidly good upside if everything hits, and it’s so easy to see with Sinnott. He’s an electric athlete — 9.7 relative athletic score (RAS) — and a widely underrated receiving threat. In 2023, he was ninth in YPRR and receiving grade while also checking in at fourth in missed tackles forced. Enjoy the discount. It won’t last.
Jelani Woods has tumbled down the dynasty ranks after a lost 2023 season. The hope and promise we had entering last year remains. All the pieces remain for Woods to be a breakout star in 2024. He is tied to an ascending quarterback with a rocket arm. There’s a play-calling wizard at the controls. I know I sound like a broken record, but give me high-end athletes at this position with sterling efficiency metrics. I’ll buy in every time. Woods has that with his 89th percentile 40-time, 95th percentile burst and 82nd percentile agility score. In a small sample, he also popped in efficiency metrics. In 2022, he ranked 14th in YPRR, 16th in first downs per route run (FD/RR) and ninth in YPRR against man coverage. My fingers are crossed that I was just a year early.
Yep, you guessed it. Here’s another top-shelf athlete with wondrous spreadsheet numbers coming in as an eye-popping value because of injury worries. Let’s get this out of the way. No, I’m not worried about Erick All’s injury history. The back injury that led to the premature ending of his 2022 season was proven to be in the rearview after he started crushing souls in 2023 without issues. His 2023 season was cut short due to a torn ACL, which is the only injury recovery that concerns me, but hey, I’m an ardent believer in modern medicine and science. All should make a complete recovery from that injury as well.
His landing spot with Cincinnati is mouth-watering. Tee Higgins is likely gone, and Mike Gesicki and his one-year deal are all that stand in his way from an every-down role. All has ranked top-10in yards per route run in each of the last two collegiate seasons in which he was healthy enough to garner at least 20 targets. During his final season in college, he was first in yards per route run and eighth in receiving grade against man coverage. I want him on all of my dynasty teams.
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, Fantasy Points Data, PFF and PlayerProfiler.com unless otherwise specified. All average draft position (ADP) data cited per DLF May Superflex ADP.
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Derek Brown
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Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.
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