It’s one thing to be the favorite. It’s quite another to be Georgia and the SEC in ESPN’s latest 2024 FPI (Football Power Index) rankings and predictions.
The two most astonishing stats based on ESPN’s FPI forecast, which ranks probability of success as compared to an average FBS team, then simulates the season 20,000 times:
Georgia has a 20.7 percent chance to win The College Football Playoff. Next closest is Oregon at 12.9 percent. Not far behind the Ducks is the Texas Longhorns at 11.7 percent.
The SEC has a 52.5 percent chance to win The College Football Playoff. 52.5 percent! The next closest is the Big Ten at 32.3 percent, and then it drops off a cliff to the ACC at only 6 percent.
Some other interesting nuggets of SEC supremacy.
Of the 20 biggest games as measured by the FPI, 13 are SEC games, and another three involve one SEC team. No. 1 is Georgia at Texas. No. 2 is Georgia at Alabama.
Five teams have a plus-three touchdown differential compared to the average FBS squad, three of which are in the SEC: Georgia (+26.8), Oregon (+24.5), Texas (+22.9), Ohio State (+22.2), and Alabama (+21.9).
Finally, 11 of the top 20 schools in the FPI rankings are from the SEC:
No. 1 – Georgia Bulldogs
No. 3 – Texas Longhorns
No. 5 – Alabama Crimson Tide
No. 8 – Oklahoma Sooners
No. 9 – Tennessee Volunteers
No. 10 – Missouri Tigers
No. 13 – LSU Tigers
No. 14 – Texas A&M Aggies
No. 16 – Ole miss Rebels
No. 19 – Auburn Tigers
No. 20 – Florida Gators
It’s confirmed. The SEC is stacked.
Matt Graham covers the SEC for The Sporting News. He’s been covering college football, the NFL, NBA, the Olympics, and MLB for almost 20 years for NBC Sports, Yahoo Sports, and USA TODAY Sports, where he also co-founded For The Win.
