2WAD2XX MIAMI GARDENS, FL – DECEMBER 30: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) throws the football on the field as he warms up during the Capital One Orange Bowl college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida State Seminoles on December 30, 2023 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. (Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
• Georgia’s Carson Beck: The Georgia signal-caller was the fourth-most valuable quarterback last year — behind 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (1.44), Michael Penix Jr. (1.35) and Jayden Daniels (1.28) — but that didn’t get talked about enough because the Bulldogs missed the playoff.
• Texas’ Quinn Ewers: Ewers earned an impressive 85.6 passing grade last season, so the talent is not in question. He also seems to play his best when the lights are the brightest — two of his highest-graded games came against Alabama (90.3) and Washington (81.8), where he combined for six big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
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The 12-team College Football Playoff era is nearly upon us.
We are only a few months out from the start of the 2024 college football season, so it’s time to look at some of the top Heisman candidates heading into the campaign.
Like last year, the summer will be filled with talk about quarterbacks who could win this award. So, here are five players who I believe have the best chances of taking home the hardware in December.
Fanduel Betting Odds: +750
Beck is widely considered the top quarterback in college football ahead of the 2024 season. The Georgia signal-caller was the fourth-most valuable quarterback last year — behind 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (1.44), Michael Penix Jr. (1.35) and Jayden Daniels (1.28) — but that didn’t get talked about enough because the Bulldogs missed the playoff.
His play last year has put him in the conversation for QB1 in next year’s draft, as he earned a 90.8 passing grade that’s good for second among returning quarterbacks.
Beck started slowly, but he never looked back once he hit his stride. His 3,949 passing yards and 80.1% adjusted completion percentage both ranked third among quarterbacks last year, while his 91.5 overall grade ranked fifth.
PFF grades, advanced statistics and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Fanduel Betting Odds: +900
After a rough 2022 campaign, Quinn Ewers bounced back in 2023 and showed everyone why he was the nation’s top recruit back in 2021. Now, it’s time for him to put it all together and show more consistency over an entire season.
Ewers earned an impressive 85.6 passing grade last season, so the talent is not in question. He also seems to play his best when the lights are the brightest — two of his highest-graded games came against Alabama (90.3) and Washington (81.8), where he combined for six big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
This sort of thing matters for quarterbacks. It’s important to find a gamer like that under center who welcomes the big moments and doesn’t falter under pressure.
Conversely, Ewers had his two lowest-graded games against Wyoming (53.6) and Rice (66.1). If he can just clean up his inconsistent play and decision-making, especially against inferior opponents, he will no doubt find himself at the Heisman ceremony in 2024.
PFF grades, advanced statistics and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Fanduel Betting Odds: +1000
Gabriel has been the beneficiary of some very QB-friendly systems over the past few seasons. This is not to say he’s bad; he’s just played in some very good situations behind excellent playcallers.
Gabriel does not have a cannon by any means, but he’s about as accurate as they come for a college quarterback. Over the last two years, he ranks 10th among the nation’s quarterbacks in accuracy-plus percentage.
Gabriel has made the most of it and perfected the system everywhere he’s gone, and he’ll likely do the same once again at Oregon in Dan Lanning’s offense, which ranked second in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play last year.
In his sixth and final college football season, expect another great statistical year out of the new Ducks quarterback.
PFF grades, advanced statistics and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Fanduel Betting Odds: +1500
There might not be a more polarizing quarterback in college football. In terms of NFL projection, Milroe might also have the most to gain out of all the top names.
A year ago, few people would have believed in Milroe’s potential as a passer. Fast forward to now, the comparisons to Lamar Jackson look a little more valid, given his similar arm strength and athleticism.
The Alabama quarterback finished the 2023 season with a 78.1 passing grade and an 85.3 rushing grade. There may not be a better dual-threat QB in college football, but Milroe has got to learn to become more comfortable in the pocket if he wants to truly succeed at the next level.
We saw Milroe improve immensely last season, raising his passing grade all the way from 30.3 in 2022 to 78.1 in 2023. But he still really struggled in the last two games against Georgia and Michigan, where he graded in the 50s and fumbled five times.
Even though Nick Saban has just retired, Milroe has a silver lining: He now has Kalen Deboer, an offensive mastermind for quarterbacks, coaching him up.
PFF grades, advanced statistics and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Fanduel Betting Odds: +2000
The biggest dark-horse candidate on this list is the incoming Fighting Irish transfer from Duke, Riley Leonard.
While scouts may not be quite as high on him after a disappointing 2023 season that was cut short by injury, he still has a whole lot of potential as a big, strong-armed QB with plus movement skills.
Now is the perfect time for Leonard to rebuild his draft stock. He will also be in a great position to do so, playing with a much better offensive line and better receivers on the outside, such as Jordan Faison and tight end Mitchell Evans, who both earned 83.0-plus receiving grades in 2023.
We all know how Leonard can affect the game on the ground, as he averaged 7.3 yards per carry last fall. His 86.5 rushing grade was second only to last year’s Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels.
However, his greatest impact will have to come as a passer if he truly wants to play quarterback at the next level and bring the Irish back to glory. Leonard threw the ball only 167 times on 201 dropbacks last season. We will certainly need to see him air it out more if he wants to win the Heisman.
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