Updated conference championship odds ahead of the 2024 college football season across the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC are out courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. They include significant changes for teams whose rosters evolved thanks to the transfer portal.
Not surprisingly, schedule difficulty plays a role in getting to respective conference title games, which is reflected in these updated odds. Several teams ranked in various preseason polls have a favorable road to a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff while the journey is more difficult for others.
Conference expansion will have an effect on every power conference, including the arrival of Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC, and USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten. Those leagues are expected to dominate at-large berths in the new playoff format a few months from now.
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Here are the league frontrunners in each Power conference via FanDuel’s updated odds?
“Our conference is a crapshoot.” That’s how one Big 12 head coach put it to 247Sports earlier when asked for thoughts on the conference title picture. League newcomer Utah gets a ton of respect, as do the Wildcats, who transition from Will Howard to Avery Johnson at quarterback. Kansas State recently picked up Colorado running back transfer Dylan Edwards in the portal, giving this offense another weapon. Where’s Oklahoma State, who leads the Big 12 with 20 returning starters, you ask? More on the Cowboys shortly.
Surprisingly, FanDuel Sportsbook installed Kansas as the league’s third-most likely champion, much of that likely due to the Jayhawks favorable first half of the slate. Another league newcomer, Arizona, has +750 odds with potential all-league quarterback Noah Fifita returning. However, with coach Jedd Fisch leaving for the Washington vacancy, there could be some drop off there. Oklahoma State’s current odds are at +1200 despite bringing back Ollie Gordon. Iowa State and Texas Tech — at +1000 — each have better odds than the Cowboys.
The defending ACC champions have a new-look roster that’s heavily transfer portal-infused. That’s just fine with Mike Norvell, who turned FSU back into one of the nation’s premiere programs. At Clemson, Dabo Swinney’s taking a very different philosophy in the portal era. The Tigers are the only ranked team without a transfer take this offseason. That’s a testament to how much Swinney respects the players he has coming back and how player development remains top priority in his program.
There is some value here in Miami at these odds. Why? The Hurricanes made major moves in the transfer portal with several of the top players at their respective positions. Cam Ward at quarterback gives this offense a difference-maker while Oregon State running back Damien Martinez was a post-spring addition who fills a void in the RB1 spot. This is the best-looking roster Cristobal’s had in Miami.
Jeff Brohm flipped his roster with portal help and who’s to argue his game plan considering he’s coming off a berth in the ACC title game? That said, the 2024 schedule isn’t nearly as favorable as last season’s slate.
NC State is poised to get its first 10-win season under Dave Doeren after getting to the threshold a couple times, including last season. Another program that opened their checkbook in the portal, the Wolfpack have new additions on offense from Oklahoma, Ohio State, Duke and others. The early trip to Clemson will be telling.
This one is self-explanatory. Ohio State’s due and Ryan Day knows it. Two years ago, the Buckeyes had eventual national champion Georgia on the ropes and couldn’t hold a lead in the College Football Playoff. What followed last fall was a third straight loss to Michigan, which soured the boosters enough to step up to the plate and enhance the roster this offseason with several high-end talents. Caleb Downs from Alabama and Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins are the headliners, but getting Howard from Kansas State and the Crimson Tide’s top signee, five-star quarterback Julian Sayin, to move to Columbus was impressive. Ohio State is loaded with returning starters, guys who will be early-rounders in 2025.
Dan Lanning is building a monster in Eugene. The Ducks were a ranked mainstay prior to his arrival, but Lanning enhanced recruiting and is now a portal guru as well after anchoring his quarterback room for the 2024 season and beyond with two big-time additions. The best “new” team in the Big Ten according to most early projections, Oregon hosts Ohio State and goes to Michigan. If the Ducks take the conference and earns a playoff auto-bid, they earned it.
Picture first-year Michigan coach Sherrone Moore now: “You see that boys? The experts are calling us the third-best team in the conference.” This comes on the heels of the Wolverines’ first national championship since 1997 with much of that nuclear returning on defense. However, the other side of the football looks considerably different with J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum and Roman Wilson on the way out, among others.
At Penn State, James Franklin is trying to break through the 11-win ceiling that he has bumped his head on four times during his tenure with the Nittany Lions. Perhaps the expanded playoff gives a program like Penn State more opportunities at getting there.
Georgia captured two of college football’s last three national championships and had it not been for Alabama’s “upset” win over the previously-unbeaten Bulldogs in last year’s SEC title game, Kirby Smart’s club would’ve had a crack at a three-peat. It didn’t happen, so that’s more than enough motivation for this loaded with roster, headlined by the return of quarterback Carson Beck and several stars on defense. The Bulldogs made a couple notable moves in the transfer portal, including the acquisition of Florida running back Trevor Etienne and Miami wideout Colbie Young, among others.
For most, this is a league that would chew up newcomers and spit them out given the breadth of top-to-bottom quality. Not the Longhorns. Texas is on the national title shortlist for good reason. Quinn Ewers returns, along with a massive front, a reload of sorts at wide receiver and a back seven on defense that should be a team strength. Texas plays at Michigan early and considering the Wolverines aren’t among oddsmakers’ top 10 title teams despite winning last season’s crown, it feels like a signature win is coming in September for the Longhorns on their road to a playoff berth. And they might even spoil the SEC party, too.
Lane Kiffin signed the No. 1 class in the transfer portal and brings back just about every impact player from a team that won 11 games. Ole Miss needed to improve its athletes defensively, so the Rebels signed Texas A&M’s top interior pass rusher and Florida’s most-talented edge to anchor their new-look front seven. Ole Miss means business.
When’s the last time Alabama’s had SEC Championship odds at +950? Nick Saban’s first season perhaps? Kalen DeBoer has his hands full in his first season because he’s going to get every opposing SEC team’s best shot without the mystique. Or perhaps it’s still there and Alabama will use that as its fuel toward a second straight league title? There’s certainly futures value at +950.
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