One half of a historic College Football Playoff semifinal round is in the books, and now the other half kicks off from the Metroplex as college football’s postseason schedule marches on today.
Notre Dame edged out Big Ten runner-up Penn State in the Orange Bowl semifinal game, advancing to the national championship game, where it has a chance to hoist the trophy as a program for the first time since the 1988 season.
Now, the Irish await the winner of the Cotton Bowl semifinal game from Jerry World.
Ohio State and Texas kick off a postseason Big Ten vs. SEC matchup with a shot at the national title on the line as two of the four best teams remaining in college football.
These programs have met three times in their long history, with the Longhorns owning a 2-1 lead over the Buckeyes, including a home-and-home series and one bowl appearance.
Texas edged out Ohio State in Columbus back during the 2005 season en route to the school’s last national title campaign, beating the Buckeyes by a 25-22 count in the Horseshoe.
Ohio State responded in kind the following season, avenging that defeat by dominating the Longhorns in a 24-7 decision in Austin to kick off the 2006 season.
Texas got back on top of the series with a closely-fought 24-21 victory in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl.
Now, the Buckeyes look to even the score against the Longhorns and take one big step closer to the national championship.
Here’s how you can watch Ohio State and Texas square off in the Cotton Bowl semifinal game today.
All times Eastern, and game lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Cotton Bowl Game
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Ohio State vs. Texas
Fri., Jan. 10 | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
Line: Ohio State -5.5
Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff this postseason, overwhelming Tennessee and Oregon by an average of 23 points each.
Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been just about unstoppable, catching 7 passes for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal win against Oregon.
Ohio State stacked up 500 total yards and posted nearly 9 yards per snap in the 41-21 victory and its defense held the Ducks to just 276 yards and had 8 sacks, almost half of what Oregon had surrendered to opponents total all season.
–
Texas is the SEC’s last hope in the playoff after Georgia was eliminated, and while its offense has been inconsistent over the last few weeks, its defense has been one of college football’s best over the whole season, ranking tops nationally in several categories and strong on both lines.
But it was close against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal as the Longhorns surrendered an early 14-3 lead and had to find a way back during overtime, winning by a 39-31 count.
Texas needs its elite defensive front to generate pressure against Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who has played inspired football during the playoff run, especially behind an offensive line that has played above expectation after losing its starting left tackle and center to injuries.
And the Longhorns need to stabilize things on the ground: they were unstoppable to close out the regular season, struggled in the SEC title game, dominated again in the Clemson game, and then had more issues against the Sun Devils.
Texas averaged more than 6 yards per carry and totaling almost 300 yards against Clemson, but finished with just 53 yards and posting a meager 1.8 yards per carry against Arizona State.
–
Football analytical prediction models are split on what to make of the Cotton Bowl, with some taking the Buckeyes while others are siding with the Longhorns.
ESPN’s College Football Power Index is a computer projection tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
That model currently favors Texas to upset Ohio State, as the Longhorns came out ahead in the majority of the computer’s simulations of the game.
But a very slight majority, finishing ahead of the Buckeyes in 50.5 percent of those sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory? That’s also very close.
Texas is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Ohio State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast when taking an average of those 20,000 simulations.
But the SP+ model is still going with the Buckeyes over the Longhorns, with a little more breathing room for the favorite, but not much.
That system favors Ohio State to be 4.8 points better than Texas in the semifinal game, which still wouldn’t be enough to cover the current point spread.
SP+ comes into this game with a 392-365-9 record when making its predictions, with a 51.8 win percentage this season.
–
Ohio State is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -235 and for Texas at +190 to win outright.
Ohio State: -5.5 (-114)
Texas: +5.5 (-106)
Over 52.5 points: -110
Under 52.5 points: -110
–
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
–
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
© 2025 ABG-SI LLC – SPORTS ILLUSTRATED IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ABG-SI LLC. – All Rights Reserved. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Betting and gambling content is intended for individuals 21+ and is based on individual commentators' opinions and not that of Sports Illustrated or its affiliates, licensees and related brands. All picks and predictions are suggestions only and not a guarantee of success or profit. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
