Fantasy Football
We’ve known for a while Caleb Williams would be the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft — now it’s time for the rest of the skill position picks. And, most importantly, what do these draft picks mean for fantasy football? Which rookies will make immediate impacts? Are they dynasty stashes? Will veterans see their values affected? I have your answers with all the fantasy football impacts.
Heads Up — Live updates for NFL Draft winners and losers for fantasy football are the first two nights (through the third round). Day 3 (Rounds 4-7) will come in groups, and the final NFL Draft Grades after the draft.
Heads Up #2 — If you want pre-draft scouting reports on my Top 80 players with fantasy comps, check it out here (and bookmark it for reference all year).
Heads Up #3 — Fantasy football rankings update! Can’t wait? New seasonal and dynasty ranks are coming Sunday!
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears — Williams has Josh Allen upside and the risk of Sam Howell (number-wise). With DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and more, Williams is in a good spot to succeed immediately. Williams is too aggressive at times, even attempting a big throw versus rushing, which could limit his rushing upside.
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It remains to be seen if the Bears design plays and encourage Williams to run, and if he adjusts his play to run instead of making a risky throw — Williams could be in the 200-300 rushing yard range or even push 500 with multiple scores on the ground (like Allen). Nevertheless, the risk — especially in Year 1 — means you shouldn’t overvalue him (particularly, after the success of C.J. Stroud). Williams is a fringe fantasy QB1 assuming he throws for 4000+ yards and 25+ touchdowns, but he still has the rookie risk of being a mid-QB2.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders — Pre-draft, I said Daniels could be the best of Justin Fields or the worst of Fields. I’d argue that’s selling Daniels a bit short given how much better he is as a downfield passer. Daniels has the rushing upside to match and even exceed Fields, which means Top 5 fantasy football value is within reach. For dynasty, Williams is the No. 1 QB, but for redraft, Daniels should rank higher. Of course, that risk of being the “worst of Fields” should caution you not to draft Daniels ahead of Joe Burrow and the like, but as a QB1, it’s possible. A line of 3500/20 passing and 600+ rushing yards with 5+ touchdowns is doable, and that would be Top 10.
Additionally, this is stock up for Terry McLaurin and yes, Jahan Dotson, who makes for a terrific bounceback candidate. Both are winners here. McLaurin is a Top 25 option once again, and Dotson could finish as a strong WR3, especially if he sees the end-zone volume from 2022.
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots — Maye is a smart quarterback with plenty of upside, but there is still rawness to his game. If he starts the entire season, we have another Howell fantasy comparison but with fewer interceptions. That’s to say, Maye can go 4000/20+ passing with 200-300 rushing and a few scores on the ground but not even half the turnovers (Dane Brugler said Justin Herbert upside). The Patriots currently have one of the weakest receiving corps, and the Patriots might be patient with Maye. If he starts Day 1, Maye will be in the mid-QB2 conversation, and once under center, he’ll boost the stock of Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne and the rest.
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Marvin Harrison, WR, Cardinals — You’ve heard the name and comps, and Harrison’s talent is undeniable. Harrison steps into one of the biggest voids with Kyler Murray also 100% to start the 2024 season. With the target volume, talent and offense, Harrison is immediately in play as a fantasy WR1. Look for him to have a line similar to D.J. Moore’s 2023 season (96/1364/8)… yes! as a rookie. The floor is likely no worse than Chris Olave’s 87/1123/5, which was WR22.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants — Nabers is a Tier 1 wideout for me and can succeed in any offense. That said, Daniel Jones is the Giants quarterback, which will limit Nabers’ true ceiling. Even so, there are Tyreek Hill aspects to his game, which means a line of 70/1000/6 should be his floor, and that’s just outside the Top 25 in fantasy. There is upside for more, especially in dynasty/future years (with a new quarterback). While Harrison is the best redraft option, the higher ceiling is with Nabers, but there’s more risk as well given the team.
Michael Penix, QB, Falcons — Admittedly, I’m a bigger fan than most on Penix, but apparently not more than the Falcons! Terrific arm talent, but he won’t run, and… he’s not starting, obviously. Penix needs to improve his anticipation, and even then, his upside is Matthew Stafford, and more in his later years. Penix is off the redraft radar, and this is far from a good landing spot for fantasy, as we’re looking 2+ years out. Penix is the draft’s biggest loser.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears — Odunze is the third of my Tier 1 wideouts, and you can put the Bears among the best trios in the league. Williams has everything to succeed. Odunze is behind D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen for his rookie season though, so while Odunze is a Top 3 wideout for rookies in dynasty, in redraft, he’s more of a WR4 given the depth chart. A line of 55-for-750 is in play with a few touchdowns, but again, that’s WR4/5 range.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings — Outside of Williams, you don’t get a better rookie QB landing spot. Even though I have my concerns over McCarthy having Taylor Heinicke similarities, the potential to put up Trevor Lawrence numbers (4000/20 and 300/4) and a bit more is doable in Minnesota. It’s a landing spot win. Justin Jefferson was better than people think without Kirk Cousins (still a Top 10 wideout), which keeps him in Tier 2 behind Hill and Ceedee Lamb, and Jordan Addison remains a nice WR3 with Top 25 upside if Kevin O’Connell gets the best out of McCarthy, especially with T.J. Hockenson missing part of 2024.
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Bo Nix, QB, Broncos — Funny that the Bronocs take Nix, as I said he could be the best of Russell Wilson or the worst of Wilson. Great arm and career improvement, but poor pre-snap recognition and nearly 1/3 of his passes going behind the LOS. If Nix is a Year 1 starter, the lower end of Wilson’s numbers would be the expectation, which means low-end QB2 value in fantasy, but that would allow Courtland Sutton to repeat as a Top 30 WR with Marvin Mims in play as a second-year breakout (albeit, as a WR4).
Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders — Immediate difference-maker and in the TE1 discussion. Bowers can be Mark Andrews, and he can push Jakobi Meyers as the second-best receiving option for the Raiders. A Jeremy Shockey rookie season — 74/894/2 — with more touchdowns is plausible, which would have Bowers pushing the Top 5 of tight ends. This obliterates Michael Mayer’s value for fantasy — in redraft and dynasty — he now rivals Penix for biggest fantasy loser from the first round. Pour one out for him.
Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars — In other years, Thomas might have been Tier 1. Thomas has Nico Collins upside, so while the Jaguars still have Christian Kirk and added Gabe Davis, Thomas has the ability to step in as a top-two option. In fact, Thomas can replicate Calvin Ridley’s 2023 season of 76-1016-8 with more consistency and fewer targets. That was good enough for WR18, and while I won’t project Thomas quite that high, he’s in a great spot to be a Top 30 WR as a rookie and Top 20 dynasty wideout. Davis falls back to his Bills value of being a boom/bust WR3/4.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs — I know what you’re thinking. “The new Chiefs wideout is going to be amazing!” And I get it, especially as my comp for Worthy was DeSean Jackson, especially in his early days when he returned kicks as well. With the Chiefs having inconsistency at the position and Rashee Rice with a suspension looming, Worthy definitely has potential — just be cautious not to overrate him as fantasy has done with many a wideout in the past. Nevertheless, Worthy has the ability to be their new No. 1, and that’s even once Rice returns. Worthy posting a rookie line of 60-for-800 (or more) with a handful of touchdowns is within reach, and that makes him at least a WR4, not to mention the additional value if you score return yards.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers — The trade speculation — Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel — will start, and if one is moved, Pearsall can be a WR4 as a rookie with numbers similar to Darius Slayton (50-770-4). Honestly, the touchdown mark is low in this offense, but again, that’s if Aiyuk or Samuel is gone. As it stands with both on the roster, Pearsall is a 2025 and beyond value. He’s buried, as we haven’t even mentioned the volume for Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. Pearsall likely won’t be more than a WR5/6 with around 35-40 receptions and 500+ yards, as the roster currently stands.
Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers — DK Metcalf ceiling with Rashid Shaheed floor. That gives you an idea of his potential, and Legette can add value in the return game. The Panthers haven’t seen Terrace Marshall develop the way they want, so Legette can step in as the No. 3 behind Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, or even push Thielen in 2024 for the No. 2 role. He’ll also help Bryce Young improve — a sneaky winner in this draft, so buy low in dynasty. Still, Young needs to take a big step forward for all of the receivers to hold value. I could see Legette posting Josh Reynolds numbers (40-608-5) as a rookie, which makes him a WR5, but he has future WR3 potential, as early as 2025.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills — The Bills finally add a wideout, and Coleman has the makings of good Kenny Golladay… and bad Golladay. Josh Allen and the Bills will give Coleman a great opportunity to skew to the positive end, and he has nice smoothness and speed for his size. Coleman can be the new No. 1 in Buffalo, but he’ll share more than Stefon Diggs, especially with the addition of Curtis Samuel, who Joe Brady had in 2020 with the Panthers. A Rashid Shaheed-like season (46/719/5) is doable for his rookie year, which would make him a WR4, but Coleman’s ceiling is Top 25.
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Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers — Elusivity of a running back — maybe that’s why Jim Harbaugh took him. Jokes aside, McConkey drew my smashup comp of Diontae Lockett, and given Quentin Johnston’s rookie struggles, McConkey will compete for the No. 1 role with Johnston and Joshua Palmer. At worst, he should be a top-two target for Justin Herbert, and even in a run-heavy offense, a rookie season of 55/700/5 is a likely floor, and that’s Top 40.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Patriots — Great downfield ball tracker and YAC-maker. There are some concerns about his route work, but Polk has enough ability to force a competition with the Patriots incumbents for a starting role. If Maye is the starter Week 1 and Polk is a starter, 50-for-600+ is in play, but Polk is likely a WR5 and more of a 2025 and beyond fantasy option.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers — If Brooks hadn’t suffered the injury, the first round might have been in play, as Brooks is ultra-talented. This points to the Panthers being as disappointed as fantasy teams were with Miles Sanders, who Chuba Hubbard outplayed. It also means the Panthers could be patient with Brooks and bring him along slowly, sharing the work in 2024. Brooks likely won’t hit his ceiling until 2025, when he could be an RB1 with the lead role and workload. For 2024 though, he’s a lottery pick given the risk with Cam Akers-like rookie season value (hits late in the year once 100%).
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Colts — The Colts now have Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Mitchell for Anthony Richardson’s second season. Mitchell drew Christian Kirk similarities for me — in fantasy production as well. However, fighting Downs for targets behind Pittman will limit Mitchell to WR4/5 numbers, but this is a nice little bump for Richardson’s upside.
Ben Sinnott, TE, Commanders — The Commanders needed a tight end, and they got a nice one. Sinnott has Jake Ferguson immediate potential, and the dream scenario is reaching Darren Waller. For Sinnott’s rookie season though, Ferguson’s 70-761-5 from last year might be a bit aggressive, but it wouldn’t be a shock. Consider him a nice upside gamble pick late in 2024 drafts for those who miss on the top tight ends. Zach Ertz is more of a mentor than a threat to Sinnott at this point of his career.
Malachi Corley, WR, Jets — Corley plays like a running back with terrific YAC ability. I see Curtis Samuel in him, which the Jets might deploy him as (rusher and receiver). If so, and Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, there could be similar WR4 value with a consistent floor in a 500-yard receiving, 200-yard rushing season.
Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals — As of now, Benson is the top rookie running back for 2024. He has Nick Chubb upside and Gus Edwards usage as his floor, and Benson steps in as the direct backup to James Conner. Given Conner’s injury history, Benson should be an immediate timeshare with RB3 potential value, and if Conner misses time, Benson being a Top 15 RB is realistic.
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Jermaine Burton, WR, Bengals — Burton was Tier 2.5 for me because his talent and athleticism are much greater than a third-round pick, but the non-football concerns caused a slide. At his best, Burton can be similar to Chris Godwin with better downfield ability. That’s saying something. Will he reach his ceiling? That’s the question. If he acclimates to the NFL, he could be a WR5 as a rookie and a Top 20 wideout in 2025 if Tee Higgins is elsewhere. Great ceiling, plenty of risk.
Tip Reiman, TE, Cardinals — Big target for his quarterback and has good athleticism, but also a good blocker. But? Yes, “but” because he’ll block a lot, and he’s behind Trey McBride is the passing game, which means his fantasy value is almost non-existent.
Blake Corum, RB, Rams — Great between-the-tackles running back with explosiveness and all-around game that should translate to the NFL. Corum steps in as the backup to Kyren Williams, who has size and durability concerns, making Corum one of the best backup running back options in fantasy. Sean McVay loves to lean on his lead, but he could share more with Corum than he has with past backups, putting Corum in the RB4 group with RB1 upside if Williams misses time.
Roman Wilson, WR, Steelers — Wilson loves to find space and ways to get open for his quarterback, putting him in play as the second-best receiver behind George Pickens. Wilson has “Steelers” written all over him, and a better-passing offense with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields gives him WR4 value with the potential for WR3 numbers.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers — Whether you believe my comp and excitement for Lloyd (James Conner) or not, this landing spot is disappointing with the Josh Jacobs addition in free agency (still carries $9.375M dead cap for 2025). Yes, if Jacobs got hurt, Lloyd would have Top 20 RB value, as he should step right past AJ Dillon on the depth chart, but without an injury, Lloyd is no more than a late-round backup stash for 2024.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Buccaneers — Watch McMillan pre-injury and in the CFB Playoff, and you’ll see a talented receiver who knows how to get open, find space and help his quarterback. I like McMillan in dynasty as a future potential Top 30 WR in the Sterling Shepard mold. For 2024, his no more than a WR5 though, sitting behind Mike Evans and Godwin.
Luke McCaffrey, WR, Commanders — Transitioned from quarterback, which makes people draw the Julian Edelman comparison, and that would be his fantasy ceiling — although, likely unattainable. However, Romeo Doubs-like value is possible (59/674/8), which is Top 40. If Jahan Dotson doesn’t rebound and lock down the No. 2 role, McCaffrey can step in and even put up Zay Flowers numbers, which would push close to the Top 30 at wide receiver.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Panthers — Yet another weapon for Bryce Young and a tight end who has George Kittle upside. His blocking weakness could limit his rookie-season snap count, but for fantasy, we care about the passing game, and Sanders can be an immediate threat given the current tight end depth chart. Consider Sanders a wait-and-see or deep-league stash, who could show up late in 2024 similar to Tucker Kraft did in 2023.
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Troy Franklin, WR, Broncos — Franklin fell to Day 3, and the NFL might have a similar opinion as mine — Torrey Smith — which gives you an idea of his potential fantasy upside… and inconsistency. Marvin Mims is talented enough to break out in Year 2, keeping Franklin as the Broncos No. 3 option. Anything more than a D.J. Chark-like 35/525/5 season for Franklin shouldn’t be expected.
Theo Johnson, TE, Giants — With Darren Waller retiring, Johnson can challenge Darren Bellinger for the starting tight end role, as Johnson has Jason Witten-like value. If Johnson grabs the gig, a Cade Otton/Hunter Henry line is possible, but that’s still no more than a mid-TE2.
Javon Baker, WR, Patriots — Talent is a mix of Jerry Jeudy and Darius Slayton, but he struggles to separate, which makes Baker a bit of a development pick, especially with the numerous options to make this wideout depth chart.
Devontez Walker, WR, Ravens — Great speed. Where have we heard that before with the Ravens drafting wideouts? Walker has the upside to turn into a Will Fuller type, but that’s a year or two down the road, at least, and the Ravens offense will still limit that ceiling to a WR3.
Erick All, TE, Bengals — Nice tight end in the Tyler Higbee mold, who could have low-end TE1 value in 2025, but with Mike Gesicki and the limited targets behind these wideouts, All isn’t on the 2024 radar.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins — Mike McDaniel loves speed, and at his worst, Wright should be a James Cook value in his Bills timeshare mold. With Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane already, it will be tough for Wright to be fantasy-relevant as a rookie, but 2025 could see him leading this backfield with Top 15 fantasy value, and that could happen in 2024 if Mostert/Achane missed time.
Dolphins welcoming Jaylen Wright pic.twitter.com/YkKgZuba6O
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) April 27, 2024
AJ Barner, TE, Seahawks — As are most tight ends now, NFL developmental tight end pick with any fantasy hope waiting until 2025 or later.
Cade Stover, TE, Texans — See: Barner — but with this offense, if Dalton Schultz got hurt again, Stover could be a fill-in for 2024.
Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers — Great receiving running back with elusiveness and potential Jerick McKinnon fantasy football value. If he forces a timeshare with Rachaad White, Irving could reach Antonio Gibson value as a consistent RB3.
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Will Shipley, RB, Eagles — Good all-around running back with some pass-blocking concerns. Hell compete for touches with Kenneth Gainwell behind Saquon Barkley, but Shipley is no more than a bench stash in case Barkley gets hurt.
Ray Davis, RB, Bills — Patient and smart, Davis could put up Jamaal Williams-like value in the NFL, though the Bills limit those rushing scores thanks to Josh Allen calling his own number. Davis will back up James Cook and could be an RB2 if Cook was hurt.
Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers — Terrific speed for his size, and while he’s not the most elusive, look at the fit for his style! Guerendo can push Elijah Mitchell for the Christian McCaffrey backup role, and it’s not bold to say Guerendo would have RB1 value on this team if he had to step in for CMC.
Jared Wiley, TE, Chiefs — Talented receiving tight end, who could be the replacement for Travis Kelce as soon as 2025 given his rumored retirement thoughts this past year.
Braelon Allen, RB, Jets — Great speed, size and balance with limited lateral movement and enjoys contact too much. Best case is he’s a slightly lesser Derrick Henry, but he’ll be more of a Latavius Murray behind Breece Hall with Top 20 upside if Hall ever hurt.
Jacob Cowing, WR, 49ers — Speed, burst, elusiveness and cuts through defense. Sounds like a 49ers guy doesn’t it? Cowing is like Wan’Dale Robinson, and he could be a WR3/4 in fantasy and part of the mix in 2025.
Round 5 Interest: Estime bring power to complement Javonte Williams in a timeshare… Rattler is a terrific no-downside pick, who could be Derek Carr’s replacement… Ali has a chance to be the back if Derrick Henry got hurt… Tracy can push for a timeshare this year and even the lead by 2025… Travis is like Rattler — no risk at this point for starting talent potential, but while I am a fan of Davis, he’s buried and possibly stuck being a Michael Carter type.
Round 6 Interest: If J.K. Dobbins isn’t 100%, struggles and/or Gus Edwards takes a step back, Vidal could be interesting… most of these other picks are long-shots and depth pieces, though Jawhar Jordan, Dylan Laube, Jordan Whittington and Ryan Flournoy are worth your attention for value as soon as 2025.
Round 7 Interest: Rice and Johnson make up a new Chargers wideout depth chart with McConkey in Round 2, but they have a tougher hill to climb… Bell is an athletic matchup problem at tight end and nice dynasty stash.
(Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images, Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
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Jake Ciely is rankings: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball, candy, movies, video games, cereal… anything! Truly, Jake is a ranking prodigy. Oh, he’s also the senior fantasy writer for The Athletic, an award-winning analyst and loves DuckTales. Make sure you #CheckTheLink and #BanKickers … woo-oo! Follow Jake on Twitter @allinkid
