We play a silly game. Admit it: we assume we know how things will play out every week. Despite the chaos that ensues, we quickly forget on a Monday or even when the page turns to the next week on a Tuesday.
Game scripts and matchups that we thought would be one-sided eventually play out over 60 minutes and turn into relative garbage. We not only have limited knowledge of actual gameplans but we are guessing based on limited information of the strengths and weaknesses of real human beings.
All of that to say… it is nice every once in a while to have an incredibly strong conviction and see it play out pretty much exactly how we thought.
Actually, let’s be brutally honest: one of those players did not go as planned.
The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players used the most in cash style contests. You can compare the roster percentage, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they X’ed this week.
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.
We’ve been on a roll in Double-Ups hitting the cash line in SIX straight weeks. On the season, we are 10/14 on Double-Ups! Oh, and I lost by 0.1 in Week 5.
For that record, I am quite proud of our process.
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