Welcome to the first edition of the Q&A in a while, where you, the subscribers, pose the Qs and I’ll be trying come up with straight As. I’ve had an eclectic mixture of questions via the website, email and social media since Wednesday, and we’ll start with a query of the utmost gravitas.
Paddy Doherty got in touch to say that he was a boxing fan, and a Barry McGuigan fan, who had been watching ‘I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!’ this year. McGuigan finished eighth in this year’s IACGMOOH, which was won by Danny Jones of pop-rock band McFly.
Paddy asked: “Are there any statistics that tell us whether being a popular sportsperson helps or hinders a Celeb contestant’s chances? I know this is niche, but thanks.”
Well, Paddy, we love niche at Sporting Intelligence, and I probably pay more attention to “Celeb” than I should, mainly because my younger daughter started watching it in 2014, aged 11, and has been an avid viewer ever since.
So it would be on every year until she went to uni, and I still keep an eye on it. That first year I watched, incidentally, 2014, was one of the years that a sportsman, World Superbike racer Carl Fogarty, won.
Anyway, to answer Paddy’s question properly, I’ve done a data dive into sportspeople on Celeb (the UK version) over the 24 series it’s been running since 2002. I ACTUALLY HAVE.
In that time, there have been 37 contestants who had made a living as professional sportspeople. There has been a minimum of one sportsperson per series (and a maximum of three) every year, aside from Series 4, 5 and 6, when there were none.
There have been four sporting winners from the 21 series in which sportspeople have featured (a win rate of 19%): cricketer Phil Tufnell in series 2, Fogarty in series 14, football’s Harry Redknapp in series 18 and football’s Jill Scott in series 22.
But the average finishing position across the 37 sportspeople over the 24 series is sixth, or to be more accurate, every so slightly higher than sixth.
Here’s a summary of the sportspeople in Celeb, and below that some more analysis, because I know that’s what we all need.
Football has been the most represented sport, with 11 contestants, and two winners, and an average finish of 5th place, followed by Olympians / Paralympians (10 contestants, no wins, average finish of 7th), then boxers (seven contestants, no wins, average 6th place).
After that there have been two rugby players (no wins, average place of 6.5), two snooker players (no wins, average place of 5.5) and one contestant from each of cricket (one win), darts, horse racing, Superbikes (one win) and tennis.
I’m not sure what we can make of all this, except to say that charisma and charm are probably more important than occupation.
Tufnell, Foggy, Harry and Jill Scott were all good performers.
Having said that, Danny Jones was just the latest member of McFly to win a reality show. His bandmate Dougie Poynter had previously won series 11 of Celeb. Another bandmate, Tom Fletcher, excelled on the game show The Cube, and Fletcher’s wife, Giovanna, won series 20 of Celeb. And another bandmate, Harry Judd, won the 2011 series of Strictly Come Dancing.
My conclusion is therefore that you’re more likely to win Celeb if you have a connection to McFly than being a sportsperson. Hope this helps.
This question came via DM on social media from somebody calling themselves ‘Bert’, and I can only assume they are a Manchester City fan. They said they know I hate City (not actually true) but they would be interested in my opinion about whether City will be found guilty and punished in the “115 case”, where closing arguments were heard last Friday.
As I have repeatedly written, and said, I have zero confidence in any prediction, and I think the outcome could range from City effectively being cleared of all charges to City being found guilty of many, but not all. Which means potential punishments ranging from a fine (for non-cooperation with the Premier League probe, which we know is a slam dunk, albeit a minor one) to a points reduction big enough to relegate them.
I honestly cannot say with any confidence which of these outcomes will happen.
For new readers or those who haven’t kept abreast of developments, you might be interested in pieces from recent months about new details of City’s financial chicanery over the years, or how City have tried to shape the 115 narrative with the help of client journalists, and how we got here in the first place as the 10-week independent commission began.
As for my best prediction on the outcome: I have no inside knowledge of what has happened at the commission hearings. I don’t know the full list of witnesses or what they said. I assume City will have used similar tactics they used when getting a two-year Champions League ban overturned at CAS in 2020. They obviously will not have provided information that would incriminate themselves, and instead left it to the Premier League to prove the most significant charges, of disguised investment.
I don’t believe the Premier League will have had any jurisdiction to access financial records of Etihad’s income. So even if City produce records showing Etihad did indeed pay for City sponsorships, there won’t be any ability to see if Etihad did so after having been funded to do so by a UAE government source.
The Mancini and Yaya Toure payments look damning as far as the leaked emails show (links to all documents in pieces linked above), but again there is an element of subjectivity involved.
I don’t think there is any doubt at all that City have failed to co-operate with the Premier League. A High Court judge made this abundantly clear in 2021 when myself and colleagues from the MoS, assisted by a QC, effectively won the right to report on City’s dawdling.
I think it’s important to understand that City have already been caught and punished, twice, for breaking various UEFA and Premier League financial rules. It is abundantly clear what they did. We have been writing about it, with evidence, for a decade.
But I’m not confident the Premier League will have delivered the burden of proof required. I think City will be punished, certainly with a fine, probably with some points deductions. Am I confident they will be hit with sanctions that will relegate them? No.
The next question comes from SaintBecky72, somebody I assume is a fellow Southampton fan, and she asks whether I think Saints have any chance of survival at all?
As a football fan, and therefore completely delusional, I would always say it’s not over until it’s over. Saints’ position in the Premier League (bottom, with 5 points from 15 games) is absolutely desperate. But, but, but ….
We really should have beaten Leicester (2-0 up into the 64th minute, lost 3-2 in the 98th minute), and Ipswich (1-0 up until the 95th minute, but drew), and were ahead against Arsenal, and Liverpool, and lost only 1-0 at Man City.
There is always hope. Life relies on hope, no?
I always knew this season was going to be a slog, and always knew Russell Martin wasn’t going to change his philosophy, as pig-headed and damaging as that is. My highest high of the year in sporting terms was being at Wembley to watch the Saints win the Championship play-off.
So although this season’s struggles are not unexpected, they are still rubbish. As for whether Saints can actually survive: Derby County in 2007-08 registered the lowest points total by any club in any PL season ever (11). And they had six points after 15 games, or one more than Saints now.
And we all remember that Leicester were dead and buried in the 2014-15 season in the Premier League, in need of a miracle to stay up, right?
Well after 15 games of that season, this is where THEY were.
So can Saints stay up?
It’s a mathematical possibility. But it’s highly, highly, highly unlikely.
At least I can look forward to a 2025-26 season without VAR.
Mike Phillips emailed in response to a piece I published on Wednesday about Fifa and the 2034 World Cup in Saudi Arabia. It was a thoughtful email but boiled down to: “Is Infantino’s Fifa worse than Blatter’s?”
To which I’m increasingly sure: yes.
I have spent more than 25 years reporting on corruption by senior Fifa officials, typically ExCo members who served in the Blatter years. We know all about the greed and self-serving actions of Jack Warner, Chuck Blazer, Mohamed Bin Hammam, Jerome Valcke, Michel Platini, Worawi Makudi, Ricardo Teixeira, Nicolas Leoz, Issa Hayatou, Angel Maria Villar Llona, Julio Grondona, Vitaly Mutko, Marios Lefkaritis et al.
It’s not that Infantino is corrupt, or rather proven corrupt. By the way, here is an internal Fifa memo outlining a case as early as 2016 that he was in fact corrupt.
But his craven kowtowing to war-mongers and despots and tyrants and killers and human rights abusers, from Putin and Qatar to MBS and Saudi Arabia – no thanks.
Blatter was a protector of some truly awful and devious people and terrible things happened under his watch. But he did actually care about football, and I’m far from sure that Infantino does.
Liz B emails to ask: “I know it’s a bit anachronistic but who do you think is going to win the BBC Sports Personality of the Year this month? I’m not sure there are many outstanding candidates.”
Well Liz, I think that the historic data does point to one outstanding candidate and that appears to be verdict of the betting markets too. I am expecting Keely Hodgkinson to win.
If we look at what has happened in SPOTY in Olympic years since Team GB has been funded by the Lottery and consistently won lots of medals (or since the year 2000 in other words), then SPOTY has mostly gone to an Olympian in Olympic years, to someone who captured the public imagination.
So in 2000 it went to “five in a row” Steve Redgrave, and in 2004 it went to double-gold winner from Athens, Kelly Holmes, and in 2008 it went to triple 2008 gold winner Chris Hoy, and in 2012 it went to Tour de France and Olympic winner Brad Wiggins and in 2016 it went to Andy Murray.
Yes, Murray had a magnificent year as he became tennis world No1 and won a second Wimbledon but there was also an Olympic element as he became the first male player to win singles titles at a Grand Slam, the Olympics (his second gold), a Masters 1000 event, and the ATP finals.
There was no 2020 Olympics because of the pandemic and when it happened in 2021, it was the year Emma Raducanu won the US Open as a teenager so she was a slam dunk.
So to 2024. I expect an Olympian to win and that Olympian to be Hodgkinson, who was not just dominant in her sport, but also feisty and passionate and … a personality. The only other person who I think might get within a mile of Hodgkinson is Luke Littler. At this point and barring any shock events, a Hodgkinson-Littler 1-2 looks inevitable, in some order.
Today’s final question is from Colm McCarthy via email and it’s one I can’t answer. I’m going to look into it and I know I have a lot of followers who are lawyers and sports lawyers and otherwise well qualified folk. So if any of you can help us on this, please email me.
Anyway, Colm writes: “Hi Nick. At the time of the Superleague hearing at the European Court of Justice, a small Luxembourg club called Swift Hesperange initiated proceedings in the Luxembourg courts against the Luxembourg FA and UEFA, in the expectation that it would be referred upward to the ECJ. Their complaint was that they were restricted to playing in the Luxembourg league and could not play in Belgium, a Benelux League or wherever.
“The ECJ held, on the Superleague complaint, that the absolute restriction to national leagues was problematic in view of EU Single Market rules, Freedom of Establishment and so forth.
“What happened to the Swift Hesperange case? I have been unable to find out. Was it referred to the ECJ? If it was and they win, there could be more than 5 Big Leagues in Europe fairly soon – there are transnational leagues in rugby union, rugby league and basketball, and several clubs outside the Big 5 who are well aware of the opportunity.”
Over to you, and thanks for reading.
This piece is one of numerous articles on this site that is free to read for everyone. But the work of the Sportingintelligence Substack, not least investigative pieces on the smoke & mirrors of Man City’s legal battles, the true scale of match-fixing in England, the ‘Skyfall’ series on drugs in British cycling, part 1 of 5 here, match-fixing in tennis, and much else, is unsustainable without paid subscriber support. Try it and read everything. There’s a vault of more than 1,700 pieces on his dating back to 2010. And if you’re not getting value for money, unsubscribe. Thanks!
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