Two offenses that had explosive showings in Week 14 will jumpstart Week 15. Can they stay hot and follow up on last week’s fantasy-friendly Thursday Night Football game? The other two most intriguing storylines for Week 15 are from teams coming out of their byes.
The Rams and 49ers have straightforward fantasy starters, just like last week’s expected shootout between the Packers and Lions. Readers don’t need to be told to start Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and George Kittle. Still, there might be more fantasy-friendly goodness in this week’s NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Two offenses that had explosive showings in Week 14 will jumpstart Week 15. Can they stay hot and follow up on last week’s fantasy-friendly Thursday Night Football game? The other two most intriguing storylines for Week 15 are from teams coming out of their byes.
The Rams and 49ers have straightforward fantasy starters, just like last week’s expected shootout between the Packers and Lions. Readers don’t need to be told to start Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and George Kittle. Still, there might be more fantasy-friendly goodness in this week’s NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy are top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in Week 15. Stafford is on fire. He’s tossed multiple touchdowns in six of his previous seven games, clearing 275 passing yards five times. LA’s offense is a juggernaut when they’re healthy, and the offensive line can keep Stafford upright.
Purdy rebounded from a horrendous game in the snow, and his explosion on Sunday was without Trent Williams, providing some hope he can succeed this week if the stud tackle is sidelined again. The Rams also have an unimposing pass defense, and Purdy lit them up for 292 passing yards and 41 rushing yards in Week 3 without Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
Sadly, Samuel isn’t a trustworthy fantasy option anymore. He’s had fewer than 25 receiving yards in four straight contests, and even with five rush attempts in Week 14, he managed only 13 scoreless yards.
Fortunately, Jauan Jennings has emerged as a legitimate asset in fantasy leagues. He’s had at least seven receptions with 90-plus receiving yards in three of his previous five games, with sterling underlying data and three receiving touchdowns. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 10, Jennings has had an 84.3% route participation rate, 35.8% air-yard share, 29.2% target share, 35.6% first-read percentage, 32 receptions (6.4 per game), 370 receiving yards (74.0 per game), 2.76 yards per route run, two end zone targets, three receiving touchdowns and 13.8 expected half point per reception (half PPR) points per game. And, of course, he barbecued the Rams for 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns earlier this season. Jennings is arguably a WR1 and at worst a high-end WR2. Frankly, he should have been listed above with Williams, Nacua, Kupp and Kittle, but readers might need to be reminded of how good Jennings is.
Isaac Guerendo made the most of his first NFL start. He had 15 rush attempts, 78 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two targets, two receptions and 50 receiving yards. Unfortunately, he left the game early with a possible foot sprain. The quick turnaround isn’t optimal for Guerendo suiting up.
The 49ers claimed Israel Abanikanda off waivers from the Jets last week and signed Patrick Taylor off the practice squad to the active roster, too. Abanikanda was inactive in Week 14, and Taylor was Guerendo’s backup. They also promoted Ke’Shawn Vaughn from the practice squad. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Taylor played 20 snaps and ran five routes versus three and one for Vaughn. Taylor also had seven rush attempts, 25 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown and one target versus two rush attempts and zero scoreless yards for Vaughn. Taylor isn’t an outrageous break-glass-in-emergency RB2 if Guerendo is out, and Abanikanda is a look-ahead waiver claim in case he gets opportunities after having a little longer to absorb the team’s playbook. Abanikanda isn’t an option to start in 12-team leagues or shallower, but he’s not a baseless dice roll in sicko leagues if he’s active, especially if Vaughn is left on the practice squad.
The Commanders have legitimate fantasy talent. Jayden Daniels is the QB6 in points per game (20.6), Brian Robinson is tied for the RB19 in half PPR points per game (12.9), Terry McLaurin is the WR9 in half PPR points per game (13.3) and Zach Ertz was the TE12 in half PPR points per game (8.0). The offense was underwhelming against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and largely struggled against the Cowboys before a somewhat flukey flurry of points in the fourth quarter in Week 12. Yet, they alleviated concerns about Kliff Kingsbury’s second-half swoons by torching the Titans for 42 points in Week 13.
Washington has a sweet matchup and tasty betting info coming out of their Week 14 bye. The Commanders are 7.5-point favorites, and the game’s total is 43.0 points, producing an implied total of 25.25 points for Washington. Obviously, gamers should be excited to start Daniels and McLaurin.
Robinson is also a tantalizing option. Austin Ekeler was placed on the Injured Reserve (IR) before their Week 13 contest after suffering a scary concussion in Week 12. Robinson was already the team’s lead runner. However, he had a backfield-high 28.9% route participation rate in Washington’s blowout victory in Week 13. Robinson should see a higher route participation rate in competitive contests with pass-catching whiz Ekeler.
Robinson has a mouthwatering matchup this week. According to Pro Football Reference, the Saints have allowed 107.5 rushing yards per game, 5.02 yards per carry, 1.08 rushing touchdowns per game, 3.85 receptions per game, 30.0 receiving yards per game and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs this season. B-Rob is an RB1 this week and an alluring option going forward.
Ertz is also a viable low-end TE1. Ben Sinnott was operating behind Ertz (76.6% route participation) and John Bates (16.5% route participation) in Washington’s previous four games. So, even if the rookie tight end sees a post-bye rookie bump, that might amount to only absorbing Bates’s routes. Ertz isn’t in danger of moving down the depth chart.
Noah Brown is a worthy bench stash in 14-team leagues with medium to large-sized benches. In Washington’s last four games, he was third on the team in route participation (69.0%), first in air yards share (30.1%), second in target share (17.2%) and tied for second in first-read percentage (21.1%). The veteran wideout didn’t make the most of his role, tallying 13 receptions (3.25 per game) and 135 receiving yards (33.8 per game) in that period. Nevertheless, Brown’s underlying data was rock-solid, and he’s flashed his fantasy usefulness this year and last season in a breakout campaign for the Texans. There’s room for his route participation to grow at the expense of Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus.
Like the aforementioned Commanders, the Broncos are coming out of their Week 14 bye. Bo Nix has cemented himself in the QB1 mix. He’s the QB11 in points per game (18.0) and tied for the QB5 in points per game (20.5) since Week 5.
Courtland Sutton is also a reliable fantasy option. He’s the WR25 in half PPR points per game (11.5) despite two duds to open the season. Since Week 3, Sutton is tied for the WR15 in half PPR points per game (12.8).
Sadly, no one else has emerged as a consistent fantasy option in Denver’s offense. Could that change after a week of self-scouting on their bye? Maybe. The two players gamers in deep leagues or desperate managers in 12-team leagues should consider throwing a dart at are Jaleel McLaughlin and Marvin Mims.
The following table has Denver’s backfield’s rushing data since Week 10 via the data suite at Fantasy Points.
McLaughlin had season-highs for rush attempts (14) and rushing yards (84) in Week 13. He's a shifty, explosive, but undersized running back. The Broncos will likely pair him with his bigger, bruising complements Williams or Estime. Burton is also a headache to potentially vulture goal-line work as a fullback.
McLaughlin's size is also a detriment in pass protection. Nevertheless, he's had multiple receptions in four contests and caught at least one pass in eight games. So, the second-year pro could get a touch or two in space through the passing game.
McLaughlin's explosiveness as a runner is noteworthy for the favored Broncos in a plus matchup. Denver is a 4.0-point favorite at home, and the Colts are a dreamy matchup for running backs. The Colts have faced the second-most rush attempts per game (26.7) by running backs and allowed 118.0 rushing yards per game, 0.85 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.69 receptions per game, 35.6 receiving yards per game and 0.08 receiving touchdowns to the position. Furthermore, in Indy's previous four games, they've ceded 140.8 rushing yards per game, 4.90 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns.
Mims probably has a capped ceiling for playing time since he's a small wide receiver, and Sean Payton appears to prefer bigger-bodied wideouts. Still, Mims has explosiveness, which others in the receiving corps lack, and Payton has found creative ways to use Mims when he's on the field. For instance, per PFF, since Week 10, Mims has aligned in the backfield five, seven, five and four times. He's aligned in the backfield 23 times this year. Since Week 10, Mims has also had 0.38 targets per route run, 12 receptions (3.0 per game), 211 receiving yards (52.8 per game), 5.70 yards per route run, two receiving touchdowns, nine rush attempts and 23 rushing yards. Mims has a low floor, but his big-play ability and the potential for a slightly more significant role out of the bye could be enough for him to help fantasy teams in 14-team leagues or larger.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
Josh Shepardson
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@BChad50
Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
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