The College Football Playoff rankings revealed on Tuesday what the CFP committee was thinking ahead of this week’s conference championship games.
While some teams may be safe heading into Sunday’s final rankings reveal, others are on the edge of their seats heading into conference championship games — like Alabama, the projected last at-large berth team in the 12-team field.
The ACC and Big 12 are likely to be one-bid leagues, meaning the winner of SMU-Clemson and Arizona State-Iowa State could be the only teams from their respective conferences in the field. Moreover, if the Tigers beat the Mustangs, the CFP selection committee must decide whether they will drop a two-loss SMU team completely out of the 12-team playoff in favor of the three-loss Crimson Tide.
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Elsewhere, teams such as No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Texas have a chance to lock down a first-round bye as they take on No. 3 Penn State and No. 5 Georgia, respectively.
And that’s to say nothing of the Mountain West or American Athletic Conference, whose games on Friday will go a long way in determining which team will earn the highest-ranked Group of Five bid in the playoff. Should No. 10 Boise State beat No. 19 UNLV on Friday in the Mountain West title game, it almost certainly will earn that bid, and likely even one of the coveted first-round byes.
Should the Rebels win, however, they likely would earn that coveted fifth automatic qualifier bid — unless one of No. 23 Army or unranked Tulane is dominant enough in the AAC title game to give the committee pause.
Here’s a live look at the CFP projections as conference championship games become finalized, including a look at what the CFP top 25 and projected 12-team bracket looked like heading into the final rankings release on Sunday:
This section was updated through final conference championship game.
* denotes entry as conference champion
Clemson upsets SMU for ACC title: Clemson steals the ACC championship and should be the No. 12 team in the final 12-team CFP bracket. The Tigers have also created a question for the CFP committee to answer: Should SMU or Alabama be the final at-large team in the CFP?
SMU came down from a massive 24-7 deficit to tie the game at 31-31 in the final minute. Is losing on a last-second field goal after an admirable second-half performance enough to guarantee them entry to the playoff? The committee will inform the country on Sunday.
Oregon beats Penn State in Big Ten championship: The Ducks got more of a game than likely many expected, but Oregon finished its first season in the Big Ten with a 13-0 record and conference championship in tow. Dan Lanning and Co. will be the No. 1 team in the country, and a strong showing by Penn State is likely enough to keep the Nittany Lions hosting a first-round game.
Georgia beats Texas in SEC championship: Texas, which entered as the No. 2 team in the penultimate CFP rankings, fell 22-19 in overtime to No. 5 Georgia. The Longhorns‘ placement in the CFP is secure, but they won’t get that coveted first-round bye. It instead goes to the Bulldogs, who likely will slot in as the No. 2 team in the country after beating Texas twice this season.
The Longhorns are likely to fall in the 5-7 range in the 12-team bracket, barring results from the ACC and Big Ten championship games.
Arizona State wins Big 12: Behind a big game from running back Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils dominated Iowa State for a 45-19 win in the Big 12 championship game. ASU locks up a berth in the CFP 12-team field with the win. The Sun Devils could move up if Clemson knocks off SMU in the ACC championship game.
Skattebo finished with 16 rushes for 170 yards and two touchdowns, to go along with two catches for 38 yards and a score. The Sun Devils led by as many as 35 points entering the fourth quarter, as three turnovers led them to pull away in the third quarter.
Boise State wins Mountain West: The Broncos built a 21-0 halftime lead and ran with it in the second half to win its second straight Mountain West title with a 21-7 win vs UNLV. Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty finished with 209 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries.
With the win, Boise State is almost certainly the first to claim an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, likely locking itself in as the No. 4 seed.
Army beats Tulane for AAC championship: The Black Knights complete an 11-1 regular season that saw them win the American Athletic championship. Army entered the game ranked 24th in the CFP Top 25, and even a 35-14 win is likely not enough to jump Army enough in the rankings to make the playoff.
The Army-Navy Game awaits, followed by a bowl non-CFP bowl game for the Black Knights.
Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia made up the top five CFP top 25 from Tuesday’s CFP rankings. The Ducks have been the No. 1 for the first five CFP rankings releases.
Here’s a complete look at the CFP top 25 from the most recent CFP rankings released by the CFP selection committee:
