Welcome to a mailbag feast!
Just in time for Thanksgiving, a packed mailbag full of questions on Colorado State basketball teams, football questions both macro and micro, and more!
Needing a break from family this week? Take some time away reading through these reader questions and my answers!
After being burned twice on the up by 3 with less than 10 seconds left situation, does Niko plan on changing his strategy and foul before a shot goes up? (@apcrass)
You’ve called on yourself for not reading my story from that game! I kid because I care. Niko Medved did tell the team to foul at the end of the UC Riverside game, but it wasn’t executed and the Rams went on to lose in OT.
It was a big miscue and questions can be asked on both how CSU failed to foul and if it means the situation hasn’t been coached clearly enough.
The non-foul was the big thing to shout about, but the other 39 minutes are actually more worth worrying about. CSU has much to improve.
Who is the next great mbb player at CSU? there is no clear option in the program now (to the level of Roddy, Stevens) (@whymanwhyme)
I mean, I would say Nique Clifford is that guy. He’s averaging 18.8 points and 10 rebounds per game and is strong defensively. Clifford has a chance to have a lengthy NBA career.
Next up, though? Jaylen Crocker-Johnson has a chance. He has a deep offensive bag. If he can refine his game and improve a lot defensively, he could be a star.
Of the youngsters, the pick for me is Kyle Jorgensen. A source in the program in preseason said to me “he’ll be Player of the Year by junior year.”
He has an incredible skillset and great basketball IQ.
1. Lot of posts on (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) and “footwork”. Has “run first” made him rusty?
2. (Utah State) has put up points. Keys to a win?
3. Last couple MBB games been disappointing. Outrebounded and not in rhythm. Thoughts and when is Mbemba back?
4. W volleyball tourney forecast?
5. How is WBB looking?
6. Status of RB’s and injury?
7. We seemed to have lost our historically significant use of the TE. Is that due to run first or lack of personnel? I’m a big proponent of TE as receiver… (@MikeCSURam82)
Mike coming in hot with the questions, love it! I’ll rip through them in order.
1. No, I don’t think “rust” is part of the issue. They still rep through a lot of different things in practices. I think Fowler-Nicolosi is just an inconsistent passer at this stage of his career.
2. Feels very similar to the New Mexico game. Keep the QB contained within the pocket, force turnovers and dictate the pace. The score needs to be in the 20s or lower.
3. Rashaan Mbemba’s injury is a big problem. It has led to a bad trickle-down effect, especially defensively and in rebounding. It’s a lingering hip issue, which leads to uncertainty on the timeline. At one point they hoped he would play last Friday. Now he might miss some more time.
4. Interesting fact: Since the MW reinstated the conference volleyball tournament in 2021, the No. 1 seed has not won (or even played in the title match). I think this CSU team breaks that streak. Emily Kohan has this team on a roll.
5. An OK start for CSU women’s hoops. A great win over Oregon State early on, then a frustrating loss in a winnable game at BYU. Rams have also lost to Northern Arizona. The Ronsiek sisters are great but need help. Hannah Simental’s big game Monday night is a good sign. CSU isn’t a good rebounding team but has talent. I think the Rams can compete around the top of the MW.
6. Justin Marshall should be good to go Friday. Avery Morrow (MCL) is uncertain. I expect he’ll try and play but we probably won’t know how successfully until during the game. Jalen Dupree (back) is out. It’s a beat-up squad.
7. I think the biggest reason the tight end production has gone down is because Dallin Holker is gone. He was awesome. Vince Brown is a solid player but not what Holker was. This run-heavy attack could still get great use out of a tight end. It’s a bummer Jaxxon Warren went down before the season and we didn’t get a chance to see how he could fit.
MBB:
*FT story? Games not close if just avg.
*Love Morton’s D but “Beer for a Year” contestants better from half court (26% FG & 44% FT?!?). Situation player soon?
*Related- guard play seems like BIG gap. Any help avail?
*29% from 3 vs bad teams?!? How is that possible in D1? (@RAMpaCoop)
Again, answering in order:
1. CSU’s free throw percentage (67.62%) is 253rd out of 355 Division I teams, as of this writing. Some late-game misses have been particularly problematic. Weirdest to me is Nique Clifford currently at a 52.6% clip after 76% last season. I know he made a little change in his pre-FT routine and maybe is still getting comfortable. Overall, no real analysis needed: CSU just needs to make more of them.
2. Some ire from fans being directed at Ethan Morton was entirely predictable. CSU hoped with his transfer that a new offense, which tends to flourish, would help him get some scoring mojo back. They tried him at point guard some in the summer, but it didn’t totally take. He looks completely devoid of confidence when the ball is in his hands in a scoring position. Teams are not guarding him, which is messing up CSU’s spacing something terrible. He was supposed to be coming off the bench, where he would likely be flanked with potentially dynamic guards in Bowen Born and Keshawn Williams. Injury has changed that plan. Morton is an elite defender who does a lot of very important work, but figuring out the offense will have to come. There’s still time for him to find some mojo, too. He does a ton of extra work after practices. Right now, it’s one of the key problems for CSU to face. I won’t be surprised if we see some lineup/rotation tweaks this week.
3. The Rams lost the best player in program history who happened to be a point guard!!! It was always going to take time to figure it out after Isaiah Stevens left. Yes, guard play needs to improve but it was never going to be a seamless transition. Kyan Evans is still very new and has shown some good stuff but is inconsistent as young players tend to be. Born will start shooting better. Rust should continue to come off Williams (he went basically two years without playing).
4. CSU is No. 300 in 3-point percentage as of this writing. As usual with this offense, I think it’s mostly good looks. I think we’ll see some numbers revert back toward average. Born has more than 200 career 3’s in college and is career 35% from deep. He’s 3-18 (17%) right now. That will improve. I’m pretty sure Evans will be a good bit better than his current 18%, although we don’t have a large body of work to prove that’s an outlier. I have some concern about the 3-point shooting, but it’s not top of my list. I think it will be better. I’m more concerned with some of the current spacing and defensive/rebounding issues.
Norvell’s final year of his contract is 2026. Potential to still win 9 games this season, one would think he’s safe for the next two years (message boards + here would tell you otherwise). Pac-12 starts in 2026 as well. Lots going on, but how do John + Amy approach no/extension? (@RoryRoth)
Wrote about this some this week and it’s a fascinating question. Many factors new for our analysis. We haven’t seen John Weber and Amy Parsons have this situation (they did sign Niko Medved to a contract extension, but that was a clear attempt to keep a coach from being poached rather than an analysis of what longterm focus for program should be).
You can bet the Pac-12 move is very much part of their decision. I do fully expect Jay Norvell to return in 2025 (and I think he should) and they probably need to do something with the contract soon, but I wonder if a shorter extension is in play. I do think the regular season finale and bowl could have a bit of say. Ugly losses in both would anger the franchise, but a 9-win season could help sway some uncertain fans.
We always discuss it from the CSU side, but what about the Norvell side? I don’t imagine any big offers are coming and he’s highly paid amongst his peers. I feel like his options are a bit limited, which could allow CSU a little leverage to not need to make a big extension offer.
Any chance Jay gets an ultimatum to hire an OC next year? (@Ramalumnus)
This is another thing I pondered this week in a story.
I would be a bit surprised if Weber did that, but don’t think anything is impossible right now. I do want to credit Norvell for being willing to change his system to something he thinks is more likely to win. Most veteran coaches are far too stubborn to do that. Maybe that means he could change in other ways, too.
I don’t expect this to happen, but I’ve long advocated for teams to have a “game situation” coach, who basically follows the HC around like a puppy with all the analytics, situational ideas, etc. in hand and is in their ear. “Timeout here.” “We should go for fourth here.” “Let the clock run to the 2-minute here.” Those types of things. There’s a ton going on for a head coach, especially when they’re also a play-caller. My “game situation” coach could help with some of the nuances inside a game.
Will Jay let Mumme move on if no more air raid? I’d be surprised if he isn’t looking, I’m sure he wants to call plays and become a head coach (@evenkeelkelly)
I think that’s one of the coaching spots to watch, for a number of reasons. I really like talking with Matt Mumme and hope the best for him, whatever/wherever that may be.
To Coach Norvell: What grade would you give your team up to this point in the season? What have you been most satisfied with and where does team still need to improve? (@BallerHome)
I’ll answer for how I guess Norvell would, and then provide my own answer.
Norvell (my guess): B. We’ve gained control of games and mostly make them play at our pace. We had to take lumps early in the season but we stuck with it, came together as a team and have pushed this program forward. Wish for a couple games back and for better health, but we’ve done our best to overcome injuries and have CSU back on track. We need to improve our roster and use the offseason to refine our game in this new strategy.
Me: C+. My preseason projection for CSU was 7-5 and the Rams may surpass it. Now that I’ve seen all the opponents play, it probably could/should be 1-2 wins higher (but Colorado is also much better than expected). I think this style of football is more sustainable and has CSU on an upward trajectory. The Rams need to improve in some key areas, but I could see how this could lead to consistent winning season. There have been some very frustrating moments and themes within the season, but I’m around the program daily and feel this team is improved from 2024 and the arrow is pointed more up than down. Biggest need is more consistency on both sides of the ball, led on offense by QB play. It has been a solid season but (likely) missing on the title game is a missed opportunity.
Kind of open ended, but is it worth cleaning house with a roster and coaching start-over for the PAC transition?
On the flip side, I don’t think anyone really expected a MW championship before the season started, so are we really that far off from a “successful football season”? (@csu_evan)
Has the football program improved or is this season an illusion due to a relatively easy (in hindsight) conference schedule? (@KMullowney)
I think a cleaning house is the last thing CSU needs. CSU’s roster is so, so much better off than it was when Steve Addazio got thrown out the door. The program now needs refining, not rebuilding. That can come in roster improvements, coaching improvements and player development.
I agree, this is a successful season. It’s not as successful as it could have been, but it’s also not a failure. CSU has hit marks it hadn’t hit since 2017. I think there’s a middle ground of this being both a good season overall but a missed opportunity to not make the title game (if it goes that way).
I know a lot of folks whine about who CSU has beat and no doubt it’s mostly bad teams, but CSU over the last seven years lost to a lot of bad teams! Yes, one of the reasons I wouldn’t go for a lengthy extension right now is because Norvell and company need to prove they can win against good teams, but CSU is in no position to complain about any type of victories.
Next year will be an important proving ground because there’s no way CSU will have as favorable of a schedule.
What is the legal tie between the Idaho Potato Bowl and Boise St? Why do they never play in that bowl game? With the Pac 12 looming can we leave that bowl game with the MW? (@aarongharris)
As far as I can tell or find, there’s no reason Boise State couldn’t/wouldn’t play in the Idaho Potato Bowl. I think it comes down to that’s a mid-tier bowl and Boise is usually having a season above a mid-tier bowl.
I am very intrigued by what the bowl partnerships look like moving forward. There must be some shuffling. Hopefully the Pac-12 ends up with a nice set.
What bowl game do YOU want to see CSU play in? (@ColtonKirby880)
I think the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl would be quite fun, sign me up!
Need a power ranking or top 3 for Thanksgiving foods (@JustinTMichael)
My family usually does a honey baked ham, which I love! So that’s a top option. We’re fairly non-traditional in our Thanksgiving meals. A jalapeno mac and cheese is often on the menu, which is a top-tier side.
I do love a good pumpkin pie!
Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.
