The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Saquon Barkley: CLEARLY MATTERS, BUT THAT’S NOT WHAT I’M HERE TO WRITE ABOUT
Saquon Barkley was the toast of the league Sunday after going for two 70-yard runs, logging 255 rushing yards and over 300 all-purpose yards. Saquon is a fantasy miracle, but you already know that. That’s not all there is to discuss, as it turns out.
Philly has an incredible fantasy playoff schedule to close out the season, as it draws Pittsburgh, Washington, and Dallas in the fantasy playoffs. This ranks as the sixth-best playoff schedule for an RB and that is agnostic of the fact that the Cowboys’ situation has gotten much worse on defense.
The Eagles already lead the league in neutral run rate and total run rate. Barkley is due to have a massive close-out and is in an excellent position to finish as the fantasy RB1.
Two Vikings Get Their Badge and Their Gun Back, Which: MATTERS
Aaron Jones started the year strong but was injured, then returned only to be mired in a committee with Cam Akers. This week, he took it all back, out-snapping Akers 56-11, out-carrying him 22-4, and seeing two more targets than Akers. This is encouraging because it may mean Jones is over his ails and back to full health.
Also, the Vikings finally pulled T.J. Hockenson up to his usage rates from a year ago. Hockenson was the No. 1 TE in fantasy before he tore his ACL and MCL late last season. He has been slowly ramping up since returning three weeks ago. This week, he was up to 48 of 71 offensive snaps. This is in line with his previous role, where he doesn’t get run in 21-personnel; this means Hockenson is back, usage-wise. And based on the fact that he drew nine targets for 7-114-0, it seems possible he is back, ability-wise, as well.
Caleb Williams: FINALLY MATTERS
Caleb Williams had one of the best games of his brief career against Green Bay last week in the first game without OC Shane Waldron. The follow-up was even better against Minnesota, as Williams went 32/47 for 320-2-0. Williams was an elite QB prospect, and a specific variable that can have a massive impact on his success changed two weeks ago; since then, he’s been a much more functional passer, getting the ball out faster and being more willing to scramble, which is good for fantasy.
The passive effect is on the Bears receivers, who have all received quality target shares (and some have put up usable fantasy days) in consecutive weeks. Things are looking up in Chicago.
Gardner Minshew’s Broken Collarbone: CERTAINLY SUCKS FOR MINSHEW, BUT PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER FOR THE TEAM
Let’s be real; HC Antonio Pierce is thrashing in the water these days. No one is more aware of how tenuous his position is than Pierce; like a cornered boxer, he is swinging wildly, fighting for his very football life. As such, he’s been noncommittal to all of his players; it appears no options are off the table. And no one has ever seemed more interested in benching his QB than Pierce has been.
It may have been a matter of time anyway; desperate as Pierce is, it doesn’t make sense to keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. I credit him for that. Gardner Minshew wasn’t winning football games. He had already been benched for Aidan O’Connell before, but O’Connell hurt his thumb and was placed on IR, so Pierce begrudgingly gave Minshew his job back. It just so happens O’Connell is eligible to return this week, and he may slot right into the spot.
Another possibility is Desmond Ridder, who started a large swathe of games for the Atlanta Falcons, is a higher NFL draft pick and slightly younger than O’Connell.
And, of course, there is always Door No. 3.
Daniel Jones on the Streets: MATTERS
This past Monday, the Giants announced they were benching Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito (I called DeVito out in this space two weeks ago). Jones subsequently asked for his release from the Giants and was granted it, which should affect the remaining players.
While Jones is incredibly inefficient, he may be better than DeVito; his benching wasn’t necessarily about getting a better look at a younger QB. As most of us no doubt recognize, the move may be far more about Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter.
Though Malik Nabers drew no targets in the first half, he eventually landed on nine, which led the team. His numbers weren’t spectacular, but we’ll take a 27.3% market share off the bat. For Wan’Dale Robinson, the share was 22.7%. However, the Giants only mustered 56 offensive plays, which is a worrisome number; more plays mean more chances to score. They were also limited to just 26:01 time of possession, and they scored one offensive TD late in the game after the game had been decided. If the fellow offensive weapons endure drastic reductions in play volume and scoring opportunities, decent-sized market shares won’t amount to much.
Another tentacle is that Jones is going to end up somewhere. We should remember that Jones lurks out there when we think we’ve got the backup QB who suddenly inherits a role. Beware, Desmond Ridder super-flex holders of the world.
Dianna Russini’s Aaron Rodgers Report: MAY MATTER
Dianna Russini, a relatively credible source, reported over the weekend that it is “increasingly likely” the Jets will soon bench Aaron Rodgers, put him on season-ending IR, or even outright cut him mid-season. According to Russini, Rodgers and owner Woody Johnson have a strained relationship, and the Jets are coming to terms with the idea that he doesn’t seem like the same player he was in Green Bay. The Jets have already fired HC Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas, so it seems inevitable they want to press the reset button and start another rebuild.
This all makes sense if we think about it, even the part about parking Rodgers on the pine or deactivating his key card to the Jets’ facility. A move like that announces their intentions, erases false expectations, removes distraction, and urges their record toward the bottom of the league table so they can get a better draft choice.
If they do unseat Rodgers, they will probably turn to Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is competent enough to win games, keep the fantasy assets he plays with afloat, and even be played in fantasy himself because of his rushing upside (although we should recognize that Taylor is getting a little long in the tooth himself). This is all predicated on health, which has been a challenge for Taylor in the recent past.
Hopefully, Taylor would be able to prop up Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams, but he could adversely affect Breece Hall, as mobile QBs tend not to check down and often steal rushing TDs.
Noah Gray’s 4-TD Fortnight: DOESN’T MATTER
First, a little pretext. When Rashee Rice went out with a season-ending injury, we often heard grumbles about the Chiefs increasing their amount of 12-personnel and incorporating Noah Gray into the lineup more frequently. Time has passed, and that didn’t exactly happen . . . until now, it seems. Gray has caught a whopping four TDs in two weeks, making him an easy top-three TE during that span. So, is Gray playable going forward?
Most likely not. Gray has not caught more than four balls in a game all year; that he has happened into four TDs on eight total receptions in the past two weeks is incredibly fluky. He is not going to take the primary TE role from Kelce, and it isn’t likely the Chiefs are going to stick to 12-personnel strictly because of this, especially when their trades for DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster seem to signal that they prefer to win a different way.
Tyrone Tracy’s Fumble Issues: Back to the Meadowlands; Tyrone Tracy has been a godsend to Zero-RB drafters like me. The WR convert has been electric, pumping life into a Giants’ offense that lacks playmakers and becoming an every-week starter in fantasy.
But two straight weeks of lost fumbles isn’t a good look. The Giants’ backfield was already in a more chaotic rotation this week. We may be seeing Tracy lose some work in the passing game, which seems weird since he was a collegiate WR; he also lost a TD to Singletary in this one, and it isn’t going to help his goal line case to develop a reputation as a fumbler with a human fundamental like Singletary on the depth chart. If it isn’t already too late, Tracy better put an end to this right away.
Jaylen Waddle’s Massive Day: MIGHT MATTER A LOT
Look. I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Jaylen Waddle and I have been in a tumultuous relationship for years; it’s hard to forgive the heartbreak he’s bestowed upon me after I’ve poured so much into him. Waddle not only entered the league posting back-to-back WR1 seasons in fantasy, but he’s held incredible values for FPOE and YPRR, both of which give excellent signal that a WR is a bona fide stud.
Yet, Tyreek Hill has established himself as the alpha WR in Miami, and Mike McDaniel seems prone to maximize Hill by giving him the cheat motion, the first read, and the pin to his DEBIT card. This has resulted in Waddle taking a clear backseat since Hill has been in town. But, also, things haven’t exactly been going well for the Dolphins; their elite offense has been less elite this year – and I’m not just talking about the middle part where Tua Tagovailoa went on IR with a concussion. Nothing has been precisely what it was.
But on Sunday, it was. Tagovailoa threw for 317 yards, four TDs, and no picks. And Waddle was the team’s leading man, drawing 11 targets and converting for 9-144-1. Maybe it was just a coverage thing, a random blip, or throwing Waddle a bone because they were taking on the Pats; it’s also entirely possible that what was not working eventually drove McDaniel to try something new, and it worked really well. Stay tuned.
Jaylen Warren Outscoring Najee Harris: DOESN’T MATTER, BUT THE UPCOMING SCHEDULE MAY
Look, I’m like you. I’ve been waiting for the Jaylen Warren takeover for years. That’s why, on Thursday, when Warren doubled up Najee Harris in PPR and got the TD, many in the fantasy community perked up. But Harris still out-carried Warren 16-11. Warren barely carried an advantage over Harris in the passing game, with three targets to two. He played 39 snaps to Harris’s 27, but the Browns had 25 offensive plays with a lead, and the Steelers had only four. Negative game scripts put Warren on the field more.
The split will likely remain mostly the same. What could be of more consequence is the fact that the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs lurk in the fantasy playoffs. These are all games that have a high probability of turning into negative game scripts for the Steelers. If negative game scripts put Warren on the field far more often, this could actually benefit him.
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