The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Against New Orleans, Jerry Jeudy went 6-142-1, including an 89-yard score.
From Weeks 8-10, Elijah Moore led the way for the Browns with a 24% market share, Cedric Tillman had 23%, and Jerry Jeudy had 22%. Jeudy was the only WR of the three to maintain his pace Sunday, as he drew 10 targets for a 22.7% share in Week 11, but the others weren’t far behind. Moore and Tillman both drew eight targets for an 18.2% share. Jeudy drew the nuts on Sunday, aided by his monstrous play, but it seems possible that the three could take turns going forward.
Cleveland has been pass-heavy all year, even when Watson was healthy; this is also Kevin Stefanski’s pre-existing tendency. But between Weeks 8-10, the Browns were at a 67% pass rate, and this week, they dropped back on 74% of their offensive snaps. With this type of pass volume and a share in the 18-23% range, all three WRs could be viable in many, if not most, leagues.
I added and held Jauan Jennings in leagues after Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the season. I felt optimistic enough to execute Ye Olde FAAB Dump on the guy, but this has worked out better than I could have imagined. In games without Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings had 5.5 more targets/G, 4.25 recs/G, 83.4 rec YDs/G, and 1.0 TDs/G than he has otherwise, and he had claimed a 29.1% target share in these games as well. For context, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, and Tee Higgins came into the week with a 29% share.
On Sunday, he again drew a 39% market share and went 10-91-1. If this trend continues, Jennings will be a WR1 from now on.
If you want to hear a scout gush, let them talk about the types of throws Justin Herbert can make. He’s a towering statue of granite, tough-as-nails, toolsy, and apparently humble and hard-working, with underrated athleticism and one of the biggest arms in the league. He has been perpetually conservative thus far in his career, but he’s starting to lay that aside somewhat and open up more. Last night, he was unreal, leading a drive to win a massive game, compiling nearly 300 yards through the air and two scores, while adding 65 rushing yards.
The Chargers throw more than many anticipated to start the year, but they are still rather run-heavy, tied for 10th in neutral run rate and fifth in overall run rate. They run the slowest at the line of scrimmage per offensive play and have the lowest offensive play volume in the NFL. Entering Week 11, they ranked 28th in the NFL in passing attempts per game.
Entering Week 11, 208 of their 553 total offensive snaps (37.6%) have been from a lead of at least seven points. Their run rate climbs to 55% on this sample. Even with tighter matchups on the horizon, they won’t all shoot out like in last night’s affair. Herbert is incredible, but this isn’t the Chargers’ nature.
I mean, always be humble, but also, this was written in this space two weeks ago:
The bummer is that I said he was “capable of 30-point fantasy games.” I guess I missed it by eight and a half.
Let’s cut the crud-ola here. Taysom Hill is a cheat code because he can be plugged into a highly volatile, generally low-output position. And yet, Hill is getting extra high-value touches, pass attempts, and sometimes several rushing attempts. When many of your league-mates are plugging in a TE on the off-chance they score this week, Hill can far exceed that, as we saw Sunday.
This week, our vantage point is from above instead of below, as it was the last time I wrote on Hill. It is essential to stay grounded and recognize that there is no way any player–not Tyreek Hill, not Ja’Marr Chase, not Barry Sanders, not Marshall freaking Faulk could ever keep this type of pace on this volume.
Hill had 17 opportunities against Cleveland. He scored 2.5 PPR points per opportunity; to apply context, Tyreek Hill scored 2.2 fantasy points per opportunity in his best season, Christian McCaffrey scored 1.2 in his, Marshall Faulk scored 1.3, Torry Holt hit 2.2, Randy Moss hit 2.4, and Priest Holmes hit 1.1. You get the gist.
Enjoy this one. Enjoy Hill as an upgrade over most TEs. Don’t expect any more games like this one.
The Bears fired OC Shane Waldron, and Sunday was their first game without him. Instead, plays were called by Thomas Brown. Some interesting things happened.
Cole Kmet bumped to a 95% route participation, cutting Gerald Everett out of the equation. Roschon Johnson took 10 of 11 snaps from within the three-yard line. There seemed to be greater emphasis on getting the ball out to the Bears’ three talented WRs, as D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze all had between seven to 11 targets. And Caleb Williams seemed far more prone to take off running if he got to the end of his progression and hadn’t found anything; he added 70 rushing yards. Unfortunately, the Bears still didn’t score TDs, but there are reasons for optimism.
The Dolphins haven’t had the season we expected. We wanted it to be a hyper-efficient offense with massive numbers, but it hasn’t been. The Tua Tagovailoa injury derailed half of the season. And they were supposed to have a narrow focus when throwing, fixating on three players: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane.
So, despite the Dolphins not meeting our standards for efficiency, they have added Smith (to the detriment, perhaps, of Hill and especially Waddle) to the rotation. Since Week 5, Smith has ranked 10th among TEs in market share. That’s a good share, and he’s a weekly starter. If the Dolphins could somehow reestablish the efficiency they had a year ago and his share could remain the same, his volume would even go up from here.
Mostert has been relegated to third on his depth chart. I was a little hesitant to call it out last week, thinking it could bounce back, but now, after three opportunities in two consecutive weeks, it seems apparent Jaylen Wright has jumped him.
Mostert took 10 snaps on Sunday. He is 32 years old and is putting up 3.9 YPC. Meanwhile, Wright, a rookie, has 4.5. It makes sense that the Dolphins would want to evolve and let their kids grow at the expense of their aging veterans.
Sean Payton coached Drew Brees to the all-time passing yardage lead (since eclipsed). Brees was a bit of a weak-armed accuracy specialist, a little undersized, and man–he could go through a progression. Sound familiar?
The criticism of Nix coming out of college was that he never threw downfield. He didn’t have to on Sunday. He completed 28/33 for 307 yards and four scores in their thorough dismantling of a division leader. He had an aDOT of just 4.0.
Brees had a couple of hardscrabble years to start; Nix had a couple of hardscrabble games. Brees was a second-round pick; Nix was a first. He is already becoming Payton’s platonic ideal for a QB in 11 weeks. He is going to be around for a while.
But let’s slow down on the OROY talk; have you met my boy Jayden Daniels?
Jayden Daniels was the runaway pick for OROY for most of the season. Nix has moved into second, but Daniels is still the favorite–just not by a landslide. Fantasy managers can tell you Daniels has had two down games in a row. Should we panic?
I will tell you, he’s actually had three poor fantasy outputs on the year by the letter of the law. The first came against Carolina, but Daniels was hurt early in the first quarter (he had already logged 52 yards rushing and was on his way to a monster day). The second was against Pittsburgh, who just shut off the Lamar Jackson faucet this Sunday. That’s an even more significant accomplishment than holding Daniels scoreless (he had a TD in that game that was called back by a penalty that didn’t affect the play).
This week, he ran into an absolute buzzsaw. Philadelphia is the best defense in the NFC–possibly in the NFL. There are absolutely no holes, and they are running on all cylinders. This is not the first offense to be clowned by Philly, nor will they be the last. Daniels has an imminent appointment with Dallas, along with future dates with Tennessee, New Orleans, and Atlanta; if you play an 18-game fantasy season (which you should not), he gets Dallas again. He’ll bounce back.
This one pains me because I was very into Richardson this summer; I bought in heavy, and I almost gloated about it here in this space after Week 1, when Richardson put up 28.2 PPR points. As he proceeded to fall on his face imminently after, I was consoled only by the fact that I had stayed silent. Ultimately, by Week 10, I had unloaded him everywhere. I’m sad to report that this is how my season will remain, as he has been acquired in each of those leagues. That’s on me.
Look. Richardson is a dynamic runner. That should be a full stop. Based on this alone, he should be a relevant fantasy QB. He could have an elite upside if he put in just a modicum of actual passing. This is worth enduring the Richardsoncoaster alone, in my opinion.
I want to caution us not to get too excited. Richardson’s production will likely ebb and flow. His throws Sunday were not overly accurate most of the time, even on his completions. He struggled to complete easy passes like screens and underneath routes. If you scooped Richardson up or kept him, congrats! You got a great bargain! However, it would be best if you modified your expectations to see him as a back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 with the potential for nuclear weeks. I am cool with that. I like to snuggle up to that type of variance, but he will also be a frequent headache, so if you prefer consistency, buckle up, baby.
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