Italy will finish top of their Nations League group if they avoid defeat against France in San Siro on Sunday evening, which will also provide the Azzurri with a back-up plan in qualification for the 2026 World Cup if they come out on top.
This is why winning the Nations League group can help in qualification for the World Cup.
Finishing as the group winner in the Nations League effectively provides teams with a second chance at qualifying for the World Cup.
Europe’s World Cup qualifiers will begin in March 2025. 16 slots are available for European Nations at the final tournament being held across North America.
55 European nations will be divided up into 12 groups and the 12 group winners will all qualify automatically for the final tournament.
The 12 runners-up in the World Cup qualifying groups will contest in a play-off round, along with the four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who have not already qualified. Those 16 teams will be whittled down to four after a single-legged semi-final and final, and those four teams will also qualify for the final tournament.
Both Italy and France have already qualified for the Nations League quarter-finals, but Sunday night’s game will determine who finishes first and who finishes second.
Italy are the strong favourites to finish at the top of the Nations League Group A2. Luciano Spalletti’s side lead the way heading into tonight’s game and are also unbeaten this campaign after four wins and a draw from their first five matches of the competition.
Italy have 13 points and a goal difference of +7, while France have 10 points and a goal difference of +4.
A win, a draw, or even a defeat by a one-goal margin will be enough for Italy to qualify.
If the teams finish level on points, head-to-head results, then head-to-head goal difference and then goals scored in direct clashes between the two teams will be the next determining factors.
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