The Socceroos bid to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches a crucial juncture over the next week.
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Positive results against Saudi Arabia in Melbourne on Thursday night and Bahrain in Riffa on Wednesday morning (AEDT), will ensure the Socceroos have their fate in their own hands again.
That would be a remarkable turn of events considering the less-than-ideal situation current coach Tony Popovic stepped into at short notice just seven weeks ago.
While there’s reason to be optimistic that this side is developing the tools to navigate this fork in the road, the opposite outcome is also an alarming possibility.
The only absolute, at this point, is the reality that the slip-ups against Bahrain and Indonesia, in the opening two matchdays of the third round, has left this side with little margin for error from here until the final qualifier in mid-June next year.
THE STATE OF PLAY
The Socceroos are currently second in Group C with one win, two draws and one defeat. It sees them sit on five-points, level with their next two opponents. It’s a happy coincidence that Australia can directly impact the fortunes of their two rivals for direct qualification at this particular point of the World Cup qualifying cycle. Saudi Arabia is third, ahead of fourth placed Bahrain on goal difference.
The opportunity to salvage their once crisis riddled campaign to this extent, after a defeat to Bahrain on the Gold Coast on matchday one and the scoreless draw against Indonesia in Jakarta that followed, is not one that will present itself again.
Beating both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain will take Australia to 11-points and limit their two foes to eight points, at best, during this window.
A top two finish in the group – Japan currently look locked in to finish first with an unbeaten record through four games – guarantees a spot at the 2026 global showpiece. There are further opportunities to qualify in the fourth and fifth rounds, but that path is full of pitfalls and potholes.
It leaves Popovic caught between the need for instant results, while still trying to develop a completely new tactical approach and integrating fresh faces that could be effective at the World Cup as well.
“It’s still very early, in terms of our journey, and where we believe we can get the Socceroos to,” Popovic said at the unveiling of the squad in Melbourne late last week, before pivoting into the true nature of the challenge in-front of him.
“That doesn’t diminish the expectation that we have and the expectation of the want of the wonderful crowd that will be here in Melbourne.
“Hopefully, they’ll really get behind us, create some great noise and expect the Socceroos to win and expect them to play well.
“We feel that and we don’t want to shy away from that expectation.”
Development and dominance don’t often go hand in hand, but Popovic will have to seamlessly marry the two.
In March, they face Indonesia in Australia before a trip to China. Six points will be a must from those two fixtures because the toughest tests await in the final window in June.
Japan, who could be assured of qualification by that point, visit these shores before an away trip to Saudi Arabia to finish the third round of qualifiers.
That final window isn’t one in which the Socceroos want to be fighting for survival.
EVERYTHING OLD IS NEW AGAIN FOR SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia has had its own stumbles so far during the third round.
Draws against Indonesia and Bahrain and a 2-0 defeat to Japan – all fixtures played at home – saw Roberto Mancini’s time in charge of the Green Falcons come to an end a fortnight ago.
The Italian oversaw just seven wins from 18-matches during his 14-months in charge, but the man who replaced Mancini is just as dangerous as any player who’ll take the field.
56-year-old Herve Renard will be on the touchline in Melbourne.
For those not familiar with the iconic Frenchman; he’s the one who masterminded Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 win over eventual champions Argentina in the group stage, at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, during his first stint in charge of the national team.
1-0 down at the break and clearly unimpressed with the way his side was dealing with the threat of Lionel Messi, Renard delivered a half-time address that has become part of football folklore.
Only the video of an increasingly emotional Renard truly does the moment justice, but after telling his players to take their phones out and “take a picture with (Messi) if you want,” he implores them to realise they’re not playing to their potential at the first World Cup to be held in the Middle East.
“Come on guys. This is the World Cup. Give everything!” Renard bellows.
What followed after the interval of that match at the Lusail Stadium threatened to turn the tournament on its head.
Saudi Arabia emerged from the dressing rooms and scored two goals in the space of five minutes soon after play had resumed.
Argentina would recover from the setback and go on to be crowned world champions while Saudi Arabia suffered back-to-back defeats to Poland and Mexico, exiting in the group stage.
Renard’s aura, however, was not diminished by the defeats.
After four years in charge and armed with a contract through until 2027, Renard decided to walk away from the role in March of 2023.
He’d received an offer too good to refuse from the France Football Federation who wanted him to lead the women’s side to the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand.
That journey took him all the way to Brisbane and an eventual quarter-final exit at the hands of the Matildas via Cortnee Vine’s penalty that sent Australia delirious.
Renard’s side went through the exit door in the quarter-final stage at the Olympics on home soil as well earlier this year, courtesy of Brazil, leaving him searching for a different, not new, challenge.
Saudi Arabia came calling, Renard answered, and he swaggered his way back into the role through a poetic social media post.
WILL KUSINI YENGI GET HIS CHANCE TO SHINE?
The Socceroos have scored four goals during this phase.
That count is really three when you consider one of those was Shogo Taniguchi’s own goal for Japan in mid-October.
The three scored by players in green and gold also came all in one game, against China in Adelaide.
The Aussies have had to navigate all bar one of their four qualifiers in the third round without striker Kusini Yengi.
The only match Yengi has been able to play was the 1-0 defeat to Bahrain on the Gold Coast where he started, didn’t score and received a straight red card in the 77th minute.
It might sound like a tough sell then to conclude that the 25-year-old is a vital piece of the puzzle when it comes to turning the Socceroos into an attacking force, but his statistics at international level so far, tell a different story.
When Tim Cahill retired from international football in 2018, he took his tally of 50-goals with him.
It was always going to be a gigantic hole to plug and six years on, so far, no-one has managed to fill the void by scoring regularly.
Of the players currently still eligible for the Socceroos, Melbourne City’s Mathew Leckie has the most goals with 14.
After that, Mitch Duke is on 12 followed by Jamie Maclaren with 11, Harry Souttar and Jackson Irvine with 10 and Martin Boyle with 9.
All have been around the Australian set-up for a long time and its part of what makes Yengi’s statistics so intriguing.
Yengi has featured nine times for the Socceroos and scored four goals. Dig down a little deeper and the former Adelaide United and Western Sydney Wanderers forward, who now plays for English Championship side Portsmouth, has scored all of those four goals in six World Cup qualifiers.
Graham Arnold turned to Yengi as a starter with more frequency toward the end of his reign and Popovic must surely be tempted to do the same.
It has been a challenging season for him so far.
Yengi dealt with a groin injury either side of that red card against Bahrain.
The latest setback sidelined him for five games, but since his return to the field on October 20 against Queens Park Rangers, Yengi has managed to rack up six straight appearances – three as a substitute and the three most recent games as a starter.
With momentum behind him, Yengi has made it clear he wants to be the man to lead the line from here.
“I have a lot of belief in myself as a player,” he said after arriving in camp.
“I’m looking forward to showing what I can do in training and showing to Tony that I’m capable of starting for his team.”
THE FUTURE OF MAT RYAN
Popovic was questioned last week as to whether he’d decided Joe Gauci was his first-choice goalkeeper.
The answer was simple.
“No,” he said.
It was a fair assumption.
Popovic has been in charge for two games and started Gauci in goal both times instead of captain Mat Ryan.
Gauci secured a move from Adelaide United to Premier League giants Aston Villa earlier this year, and at 24, appears to be next in line to the gloved throne.
Popovic was at pains to stress that Ryan’s demotion to the bench has had little bearing on his view of the shot stopper as a leader.
“Mat Ryan is the captain,” Popovic said, before repeating it so everyone got the message.
Gauci seems like Villa’s back-up goalkeeper for the cup competitions.
He started their third round League Cup game against Wycombe and fourth round defeat to Crystal Palace and has occupied a spot on the bench in the Champions League, but not for the last three Premier League games.
That honour has fallen to 34-year-old Swede Robin Olsen.
Ryan, in contrast, hasn’t featured for Italian side Roma yet, after an off-season move from Dutch outfit AZ Alkmaar.
Now 32, Ryan has racked up an impressive resume that has included stints in the Premier League and La Liga, but his move to one of Serie A’s most historic clubs was always going to present some difficulties when it came to game time.
25-year-old Mile Svilar has been entrenched in Roma’s goal with Ryan unable to dislodge him.
Jackson Irvine, also a natural leader who is the captain of FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga, has been handed the armband in Ryan’s absence.
There’s no doubt the former Brighton, Arsenal and Valencia gloveman can act as a highly useful sounding board for Gauci, but whether his circumstances will change at international level without the landscape shifting at his club remains unclear.
The next two games could prove telling on that front.
