The past week has been a whirlwind for the Colts, who decided to bench second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and roll with veteran Joe Flacco as the starter.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a two-game losing streak, but they’ve had a mini-bye week off “Thursday Night Football” to prepare for this Week 9 matchup.
Can Flacco give the Colts a spark? Or will Minnesota start hot at home?
Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Much has been made about Flacco as an upgrade over Richardson, and it’s fair to note that the veteran has been far more efficient this season. Flacco ranks seventh out of 42 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, while Richardson ranks 42nd.
However, it also must be noted that over 40 percent of Flacco’s dropbacks this season came against the Jaguars, who rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. This matchup will be a significant challenge, as the Vikings rank first in pass defense DVOA.
Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to dial up the blitz — which will create problems for an immobile Flacco behind an offensive line that could be missing left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who is in concussion protocol.
Flacco has averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt against the blitz this year, which ranks 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks.
Kevin O’Connell has orchestrated an impressive offense around journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold this season.
The Vikings have been incredibly potent early in games, ranking among the NFL’s top seven teams in first-half EPA per play and success rate. However, that drops to 23rd and 25th in the second half. The scripted portion of games has gone exceedingly well for O’Connell and Darnold.
The Colts defense has been playing well lately, but it’s still a relatively vanilla defense called by Gus Bradley. Indianapolis ranks in the top five in zone coverage rate, primarily operating in Cover 3, and rarely sends extra rushers, ranking 26th in blitz rate.
Top wide receivers have burned this secondary this year, and Justin Jefferson could be in for a big game in prime time.
The loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw will hurt the Vikings offense, but their front office was quick to respond with the trade acquisition of Cam Robinson. The Colts are a below-average pressure unit, and Darnold ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt from a clean pocket.
With extra time to prepare for this game, I give the Vikings coaching staff a significant advantage over a Colts staff with significant distractions this week.
O’Connell should have a pristine game plan for Bradley’s defense, while Flores will send the house against Flacco, who has struggled mightily against the blitz.
I see the most significant edge coming in the first half of this game, where the Vikings rank top seven in EPA per play on offense and defense. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 27th in first-half offensive EPA and 14th on defense.
I’m backing the Vikings to cover the spread in the first half.
Best bet: Vikings first half -3 (-120 or better).| (-120, ESPN BET)
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
