The first full weekend of November football saw several teams in the AP top 25 rankings taking a rest, but that doesn’t mean there was some very consequential action across the country as some of college football’s postseason contenders were on the field in prove-it games on Saturday.
Happy Valley didn’t live up to its name for the home team in the early window, as a battle of top-four ranked Big Ten rivals met with one team looking to end a long losing streak against its rival, while the other hoped to avoid what would have been a costly second loss.
Other results across Statement Saturday saw seven ranked teams lose on the field, including stunners in the SEC and ACC in the Palmetto State and an undefeated ACC contender failed to pass a critical road test in primetime.
What teams will be on the move in the AP top 25 college football rankings this week?
Let’s take a shot at predicting who’s moving up, and who’s going down, in the polls heading into Week 11.
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
This is starting to get monotonous. Especially since it felt different coming into this year.
More than a few analysts projected Penn State would finally get one over on Ohio State, coming in undefeated, playing at home, and with more breathing room thanks to the expanded playoff.
Instead, it was another sluggish performance on both sides of the ball that resulted in an eighth straight loss to the Buckeyes, not so much raising as outright answering questions around head coach James Franklin’s performance against highly-ranked opponents.
Franklin dropped to 1-13 against AP top-five ranked opponents, including 11 straight losses, just 3-18 against top-10 teams, and fell to 1-10 against Ohio State.
In four trips inside the red zone, the Nittany Lions came away with 2 field goals and no touchdowns, scoring just 6 total points inside the 20.
The coup de grace was a botched attempt by Penn State’s offense to punch it in from the Buckeyes’ 3- and then 2-yard line, a four-play mishap that ended with a turnover on downs and effectively ended the team’s hopes of getting the ball again.
Just twice in Andy Kotelnicki’s career as an offensive coordinator has his team been held out of the end zone, and Jim Knowles is responsible for both: in 2021 against Knowles’ defense at Oklahoma State, and on Saturday against his Buckeyes.
In a four-team playoff era, the loss would spell the practical end of Penn State’s national title hopes, but with no ranked teams on the schedule going forward, an 11-1 finish is more than possible and with it could come consideration in the College Football Playoff.
As for right now, AP top 25 voters will punish the Nittany Lions for not living up to their potential as the No. 3 team, but may not be too harsh on their ballots, given recent precedent.
Texas stayed in the top-five after losing to Georgia as the No. 1 team a few weeks ago, and while that may be too much to ask, Penn State should cling to a spot inside the top 10.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 4
It’s hard to overestimate how important a win like this was for Ohio State.
The pressure was on: a loss to Oregon still loomed large, head coach Ryan Day has been under intense criticism for his record against highly-ranked opponents, and a second loss would have given the selection committee even more ammunition to keep this team out of the playoff.
Will Howard was the first to admit he didn’t play a stellar game, throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown on his first pass, fumbling as he neared the goal line on a carry that resulted in a touchback, and missing what would have been a touchdown throw in the first half.
But he also led two touchdown drives, and after the Buckeyes’ statement defensive stand from 2 yards out, the quarterback was instrumental in sealing the victory, leading the final drive to run down the clock, and running himself for the last first down to clinch it.
This might not be the kind of offense we expected from Ohio State this season, but this team can still take out one of its principal conference rivals and is playing a more physical brand of football that could come in very handy as we near the postseason.
Ohio State’s win could create a dilemma for some AP top 25 voters. Normally, wins by the No. 1 and No. 2 team would imply that Oregon and Georgia, respectively, would stay put.
But some ballots could entertain the Buckeyes at No. 2 given the team played to a 1-point loss on the road against that No. 1 team, won on the road against the No. 3 team, and after Georgia struggled to put away unranked Florida.
Our bet is that those top-two teams don’t move and Ohio State moves into the No. 3 position in the rankings formerly held by Penn State.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Pitt was one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams coming into Saturday, but there were some questions around the quality of competition behind that 7-0 record.
Playing on the road against a one-loss SMU would, the Panthers hoped, allay those concerns and put their ACC title hopes on a firmer foundation.
But the offense failed to generate much momentum, scoring 3 points in the first half, and the defense was largely unable to contain the Mustangs’ skill weapons in a 48-25 loss.
The margin of defeat against the first ranked team on Pitt’s schedule will give AP voters pause, but probably not enough to drop this team out of the rankings entirely.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 20
On the other side of that rout in the Metroplex, the Mustangs impressed with a balanced, aggressive offensive game plan that bested a strong Pittsburgh defense in a statement victory.
The win moves SMU into the second-place position in the ACC standings and to an 8-1 record facing three very winnable games to close out, against BC, at Virginia, and against Cal.
And with other teams higher up in the rankings losing their games, there should be plenty of room for the Mustangs to move up the polls, almost certainly into the top 15.
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Kansas State and Iowa State came into this weekend as promising Big 12 title contenders, but after stunning losses against unranked opponents, both are moving down the rankings and are in trouble moving into November.
Both were right within striking distance to make a run at the Big 12 championship, but were knocked back in a big way after getting upset by Houston and Texas Tech, respectively.
Iowa State was No. 11 and off to its best start since 1938, one of two unbeaten teams left in the conference and poised to make a run at the Big 12 title and, by proxy, the playoff.
Now, the Cyclones have no real margin for error going forward in a crowded field near the top of the Big 12, with Colorado sitting right behind in the standings.
Likewise for Kansas State, which was No. 17 in this week’s poll, but whose solid rushing attack, ranked 9th in FBS coming into this weekend, ran into a wall against the overlooked Cougars.
K-State finished with just 89 yards on the ground and a meager 2.6 yard per carry average, and the offense scored just 3 second-half points while allowing 14 in the fourth quarter alone.
AP voters will likely drop the Cyclones down out of the top 15, while the Wildcats are in danger of falling out of the poll at worst and dropping into the bottom-five at best.
Don’t look now, but Colorado is suddenly in a tie for second place in the Big 12 standings with a 4-1 conference record and at 6-2 overall.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 5
With one of the top four teams in the AP rankings necessarily having to lose this weekend, it was expected the fifth-ranked Hurricanes would move up in the poll, provided they could win.
And while Duke made that proposition far more tenuous than was predicted, leading Miami 28-17 in the third quarter on the road behind an inspired performance, it fell to Cam Ward to revive the Canes’ fortunes, and that’s what he’s done all season.
From midway through the third quarter on, Ward led Miami on a 36-3 scoring run that once again reminded everyone that this offense can score at will when it has a mind to.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 10
There are no more undefeated teams in SEC play after Texas A&M collapsed on the road in a stunning 44-20 loss at South Carolina and fell to 5-1 in conference.
Quite a letdown for the Aggies, whose superb defense failed to live up its reputation on the road, allowing over 500 total yards, while its offense didn’t score a point in the second half.
That will have AP top 25 voters re-evaluating where A&M belongs in the rankings, the middle-third of which is due for some major changes after several ranked teams lost.
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– Clemson fell on its face coming out of its idle week, unable to get much going in a surprise loss at home to unranked Louisville, and will slip from its No. 11 ranking.
– Ole Miss is due for a jump in the rankings after smacking Arkansas in a 63-31 rout as Jaxson Dart had 6 touchdown passes and the Rebels moved to 3-2 in SEC play with Georgia up next.
– Boise State will take advantage of other poll movements from higher-ranked teams losing after beating San Diego State by a 56-24 count and sitting at 7-1 with a loss to No. 1 Oregon.
– Indiana should get more votes in the Week 11 rankings after coming back from a 10-0 deficit to thrash Michigan State on the road, moving to 9-0 for the first time in program history and definitively into College Football Playoff contention.
– Vanderbilt received votes last week, but could move back into the rankings this week after a 10-point win at Auburn that moves the ‘Dores to 3-2 in SEC play.
– Missouri could fall out of the rankings after clinging to the No. 25 position last week despite a 34-0 loss at Alabama, as AP voters couldn’t find any replacements to fill out the bottom of their ballots.
– Likewise for Illinois, which should have dropped out of the polls last week, and almost certainly will this week after falling to 6-3 following a second-straight loss.
– Minnesota, the team that beat the Illini on the road, might inch into the rankings this week after winning its fourth-straight game and sitting at 4-2 in Big Ten play.
More … When the AP top 25 rankings come out
And … Predicting the AP top 25 rankings for Week 11
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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