Coming off a statement win last week, No. 10 Texas A&M hopes to stay perfect in conference play on the road against South Carolina on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Texas A&M moved to 5-0 in SEC play for the first time ever after a big win against LSU last weekend and hopes to further boost its playoff hopes moving into November football.
South Carolina improved to 2-3 in conference games after a 35-9 win at Oklahoma two weeks ago in which its defense dominated, but hopes to improve its fortunes throwing the ball, where it ranks 108th nationally in passing production.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Aggies and Gamecocks meet in this SEC clash?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas A&M and South Carolina compare in this Week 10 college football game.
As expected, the models favor the Aggies over the Gamecocks, but in a close game.
SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 28 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.2 points.
The model gives the Aggies a 65 percent chance of victory over the Gamecocks regardless of margin.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.
Texas A&M is a narrow 2.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).
And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -140 and for South Carolina at +116 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
That would run in line with where most bets are going when judging this SEC matchup.
So far, a plurality of bettors expect the Aggies to edge out the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Texas A&M is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow spread.
The other 38 percent of wagers project South Carolina will either win the game in an upset, or will keep the game under a field goal margin in a loss.
Both these teams have fared exactly as well as each other when calculating scoring margins in 2024.
Texas A&M and South Carolina are both 9.9 points better than the competition on average this season in all their games.
But those averages have diverged considerably over the last three games: Texas A&M is 18.7 points better than its competition, while South Carolina sits at 0.0 points exactly in scoring margins.
South Carolina is 5 points better on average when playing at home this season, but Texas A&M has an edge, posting 9 points more than opponents on average when on the road.
Most other analytical models also side with the Aggies to take down the Gamecocks on the road.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Texas A&M is projected to win this road game in 54.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves South Carolina as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.
Those narrow margins carry over into the FPI score projection for the game.
Texas A&M is projected to be just 1.5 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Texas A&M is fifth among SEC teams with a 47.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Aggies a win total prediction of 9.6 games this season.
South Carolina enters this weekend with a 1.1 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, but should be a sure thing to make the postseason.
FPI projects the Gamecocks will win 6.9 games and have a 92 percent chance to play in a bowl.
When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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