For the second straight time, Tennessee knocked off Alabama at Rocky Top, winning 2 of the last 3 overall editions of the Third Saturday in October, and Saturday’s result could end up playing a big role in what the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff eventually looks like.
As the Vols took their final knee and the Big Orange faithful lit their victory cigars, Tennessee’s playoff chances saw a noticeable jump, while Alabama’s postseason hopes took a big hit.
That’s according to the College Football Power Index, ESPN’s computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
According to that model, Tennessee now has a 70 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, improving from the team’s 45 percent odds prior to the game.
Alabama now has a 49 percent chance to make the playoff this season, a precipitous drop from the 69 percent odds it had to make the 12-team postseason prior to Saturday’s kickoff.
Had the Crimson Tide won the game, its playoff odds would have increased to a dominant 80 percent, despite the team’s stunning loss at Vanderbilt a few weeks ago.
And if the Volunteers had lost, their postseason hopes would have plummeted to just 23 percent, proving how important a result of this caliber will be to the selection committee.
Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) overcame another sluggish start offensively, not scoring any points in the first half, in addition to 3 turnovers, but took a lead when Dylan Sampson ran for a 3-yard touchdown moments after Dont’e Thornton hauled in a 55-yard reception from Nico Iamaleava.
Sampson scored another touchdown and finished with 139 yards while the Vols added 214 total rushing yards, further entrenching their reputation as one of college football’s premier ground offenses.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe struggled in the loss, completing 25 of 44 passes for 239 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions, and the Tide ran for just 89 yards.
The loss puts the early tenure of head coach Kalen DeBoer under a microscope once again, following that historic loss to Vandy and after a very close call at home against South Carolina, needing some late-game heroics to ward off the Gamecocks’ late comeback bid.
Alabama moves to 5-2 overall in DeBoer’s debut season, including a 2-2 mark in SEC play with a date against ranked Missouri at home next weekend and a trip to LSU the week after.
Tennessee is home the next two weeks against Kentucky and Mississippi State before another key matchup at Georgia on Nov. 16.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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