We’re coming off our best week of the season, correctly predicting seven of the top 10 defenses, including being correct on four of the top five units. I didn’t guess this Giants performance against the Seahawks, but the Vikings, Packers, Broncos, and Bears were all ranked highly for me.
The Giants are also a lesson to me that I need to trust the worst I’m putting in. My BOD formula didn’t have the Giants in the top five but it had them six spots higher than I wound up ranking them, but I manually adjusted the ranks because I was worried about the offense without Malik Nabers putting the defense in bad spots. Perhaps that wasn’t the wrong process, but the results certainly suggest it was. In general, if you’re going to put the work in to identify strengths and weaknesses or a “true talent level,” you should try not to second guess yourself. It’s a hard lesson to learn, obviously, but one that’s worth trying to repeat to yourself.
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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
WEEK 4: 7-3
SEASON-LONG: 26-24 (52%)
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 6?
The Steelers are far and away my top option this week. They rank 4th in opponent’s scoring rate, 6th in turnover rate, and 10th in pressure rate and now figure to get a Raiders team without Davante Adams again. Last week the Raiders also benched Gardner Minshew for Aidan O’Connell, but O’Connell actually looked worse than Minshew and was worse than the veteran last year as well, so that’s not a change that’s going to benefit the Raiders’ offense if they stick with it in Week 6. Wherever you have Pittsburgh, you should be rolling them out this week.
Honestly, I’m surprised the 49ers are in Tier 1, but I have to trust my formula here. I know the Seahawks are a good offense, but they also give up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defense through five weeks, so they’re not a matchup we need to avoid for fantasy purposes. The 49ers have given up points this year, ranking 19th in opponents’ scoring rate, but they also rank 1st in forced incompletion rate, 6th in explosive play rate allowed, 7th in PFF’s pass rush production grade, 8th in turnover rate, and tied for 8th in sacks. The Seahawks also give up the 3rd-most sacks in the NFL through five games and rank 21st in sack rate if you take into account the total number of dropbacks. That should give the 49ers a chance to put up solid production on a short week Thursday night game.
The Chargers will be coming off a bye and facing a Broncos team that gives up the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I know they’ve looked better of late, but they also played a bad Raiders team, a banged-up Jets defense, and a mediocre and banged-up Bucs defense. I don’t yet believe that Bo Nix is a quality NFL starting quarterback, and the Broncos have gained over 300 total yards just once this season. Now, that being said, both teams will likely try to establish the run which will keep this game low-scoring but also limit chances for sacks and turnovers. To me, that makes the Chargers more of a safe floor play than a high-ceiling play, but Nix is also capable of making a terrible decision on every pass, so I’m more than happy to gamble on that.
I’m also happy to play the Broncos here even though the matchup isn’t a great one. The Chargers are a run-heavy offense that gives up the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defense so far this season. However, this Broncos defense is my 2nd-ranked defense on the season. They led the NFL in PFF’s pass rush production grade and tackles for a loss or no gain per game. They also rank 3rd in opponent’s scoring rate and 11th in turnover rate, so I think they’re a safe floor option here in a game where I would confidently play both defenses.
I assume people are rating the Packers low in response to the Cardinals beating the 49ers and being generally a solid team; however, the Packers defense has been lights out this season. They rank 1st in turnover rate, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, and tied for 6th in sacks. The Cardinals are a solid offense, but they rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so we have an elite defense in an average matchup, and so that is not scaring me off from using the Packers this week, and I’d recommend you hold onto them as well.
I know the Jaguars offense came to life a bit in Week 5, but this Bears defense is significantly better than what the Colts ran out onto the field. The Bears rank 3rd in turnover rate, 5th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 13th in pass rush production rate. Meanwhile, the Jaguars give up the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they’re pretty much a neutral matchup. With Travis Etienne banged up, I think that will take some of the explosion away from the Jaguars short passing game. The Bears as a defense have been more vulnerable on the ground, and I’m not sure I trust the Jaguars running game to take advantage of that enough. Plus, I think this Bears offense can put up points against the Jaguars defense, which is going to force Trevor Lawrence to throw and let loose a Bears defense that averages almost three sacks per game.
I don’t know what to do with the Texans. Every time I trust them, they let me down; however, they pressured Josh Allen on almost 50% of dropbacks on Sunday and now get to face Jacoby Brissett and a depleted Patriots offensive line. There is a real chance the Texans can get six or more sacks on Sunday, and I simply don’t trust this Patriots offense to move the ball at all. The Texans don’t create turnovers, which is an issue, and rank 17th in opponent’s scoring rate, but they’re 10th in PFF’s pass rush production grade and I think the matchup is too good here.
Yes, I have some concerns about the Colts defense, but I do believe we can trust them against a Titans offense that still gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Colts have given up a lot of points on the season, but they rank 5th in tackles for a loss/no gain per game and 9th in turnover rate, so there is some fantasy viability here, which is why they put up 11 points in Week 3 and eight points in Week 4. They also played the last two weeks without top defensive end Kwity Paye and starting cornerback Kenny Moore. My ranking here is assuming that both of those guys get back on the field on Sunday, which will give the Colts a little extra juice in a plus matchup.
The Bills got Terrell Bernard back on Sunday, which was huge for their defense, and they might get Pro Bowl nickel corner Taron Johnson and defensive tackle Ed Oliver back this week, which would be an even bigger boost. However, they will still be without Matt Milano and there are some real concerns with the safety duo they have this season, which makes it hard to have full confidence in this unit. The Bills are a difficult defense to plan for, as Bill Belichick explained so well last week, but this Monday night game is for a share of the AFC East lead, so you know Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are going to come out in front of the home crowd and look to make a statement. The Bills have seemed stuck in the mud over the last two weeks, so it’s hard to have confidence that they can handle an offense with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. However, the Jets also just fired Robert Saleh, so what is this offense going to look like on Monday night?
The Eagles have an elite matchup, but they have been a bad defense so far this year, so it’s hard to know where to land here. The Eagles are also coming off a bye, which could help them. The Browns, Patriots, and Cowboys are all defenses that we usually start in fantasy football, but they’re not quite playing up to their previous levels and they each have bad matchups this week, so it’s hard for me to rank them higher. The Browns defense is also usually one we can trust, and the Eagles haven’t been a brutal matchup, but the Browns could be with Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit, and multiple linebackers who all left Week 5 with injuries. Combined with the Eagles potentially getting DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown back, I don’t love this play.
This Lions defense ranks inside the top 10 for me on the season despite the assumption that there are holes on this defense. So far, they rank 6th in pass rush production grade, 7th in forced incompletion rate, 10th in explosive play rate allowed, 12th in turnover rate, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate. That’s a pretty solid unit so far, and while this Cowboys offense remains solid, they give up the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they’re not a total stay-away unit. Considering the Lions are also coming off a bye week and will be looking for a statement win, I don’t mind backing them here.
The Jets are a strong defense and could feasibly win this game against the Bills, but I have them in Tier 3 because the matchup against the Bills is not good. Despite all the talk about turnover Josh Allen, he has not thrown an interception this season, and the Bills give up the 4th-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Jets pass rush has been solid this season, ranking 3rd in pass rush production grade, and the Bills offensive line has really struggled with allowing pressure over the last two weeks, so this could be an avenue for the Jets to exploit. If Khalil Shakir doesn’t play for the Bills, I may move the Jets even higher, but this feels like a game without a high ceiling for the Jets defense.
The Seahawks defense has fallen a bit in my rankings over the last few weeks and now get a fairly average to slightly below average matchup against a reeling 49ers team. The Seahawks’ pass rush has been solid, ranking 8th in pass rush production grade and 8th in opponent’s scoring rate, but they’re also 28th in turnover rate and 28th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. I just don’t love the defense matchup enough here.
The Saints are another team that has really taken a step back in recent weeks after we were touting them as one of the best and most creative teams in the league. They rank 6th in forced incompletion rate and 4th in turnover rate but rank 15th in opponent’s scoring rate, 16th in pass rush production grade, and dead last in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. They’re not a bad defense, but they’re not one that I’m willing to start regardless of matchup, and this Bucs offense gives up the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
The Giants were the surprise top defense of the week last week, and they have been a really solid unit so far this season, but this is not a good matchup for them. I love their pass rush and think it can cause problems for any offense, but the Bengals passing attack is getting going, and they give up the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, so I just can’t start the Giants here outside of the deepest formats.
I think the Falcons are usable against the Panthers in deeper formats, but I’m fading them as a top-12 option this week. Since the Panthers made the change to Andy Dalton at quarterback, they have allowed 14 total points to fantasy defenses in three weeks, that’s 4.7 points per game. Pretty much all of that came this week against the Bears, who have a talented defense. Neither the Raiders or the Bengals defenses could put up usable fantasy days against the Panthers and the Falcons’ defense has been just as bad as those two units. Through five weeks, Atlanta is dead last in opponent’s scoring rate, 29th in pressure rate, 20th in turnover rate, and have just five sacks in five games. The matchup is a good one but not a great one and this defense has been a bad one averaging just 5.4 fantasy points per game this season, so I can’t get excited about playing them in Week 6.
I know we had previously gotten excited about defenses playing the Giants, but the Giants look much better on offense of late and Malik Nabers should be back in Week 6. Plus, the Bengals defense has been awful, so I can’t trust them in fantasy leagues right now.
BOD
RANKING
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
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