College football bowl projections in Week 7: Playoff outlook upside down after upsets – 247Sports

Coming out of college football’s wildest Saturday of the 2024 season, playoff picks and bowl projections significantly changed. Losses from five teams inside the top 11, including No. 1 Alabama’s stunning setback at Vanderbilt and Minnesota’s triumph over USC, tossed a wrench into various projections across the SEC and Big Ten along with a new Group of Five representative in the playoff.
The Commodores’ first win in program history over a No. 1 team catapults Clark Lea’s program into our Week 7 bowl projections update for the first time. It puts Vanderbilt three wins away from qualifying for the postseason. Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas gives the Razorbacks a chance to get back to a bowl game under Sam Pittman for the first time since 2022.
Michigan’s shot at returning to the playoff in defense of its national championship is likely over following a hiccup against Washington.
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The latest bowl projections from 247Sports after Week 6 in college football are here…
Frisco Bowl
Projection: SMU vs. Texas State 
Good luck getting a ticket to this matchup in Frisco if bowl viewers lucky enough to get the Mustangs and Bobcats during a postseason game in Texas. After beating Louisville, Rhett Lashlee’s team is thinking ACC Championship, not a tiered game like this. SMU doesn’t play a single nationally-ranked conference game the rest of the way and the Mustangs’ only loss came to unbeaten BYU. They are very much in the playoff conversation.
New Orleans Bowl
Projection: Liberty vs. James Madison
Camellia Bowl
Projection: Sam Houston vs. Western Michigan
Los Angeles Bowl
Projection: California vs. UNLV 
With a half-dozen explosive plays in the passing game, the Bears nearly beat eighth-ranked Miami with College GameDay in town. Had this team not fallen at Florida State last month, they would be ranked and sitting in the top-half of the ACC standings. UNLV’s loss to Syracuse likely ends Group of Five playoff aspirations for the Rebels.
Cure Bowl
Projection: South Alabama vs. WKU
Boca Raton Bowl
Projection: Memphis vs. Louisiana
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Projection: Wisconsin vs. West Virginia
Look who’s 2-0 in the Big 12. After stumbling through the non-con with losses to Penn State and Pitt, the Mountaineers host ranked Iowa State and Kansas State over the next two Saturdays with a chance to increase their momentum in the conference. Win those and West Virginia is the new co-frontrunner alongside BYU.
Detroit Bowl
Projection: Rutgers vs. Buffalo
Hawaii Bowl
Projection: Tulane vs. Fresno State
Gasparilla Bowl
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
The Razorbacks join the postseason fray for the first time after upsetting Tennessee for their fourth win of the season. It’s a huge victory for Sam Pittman, his first over a top-five team at Arkansas, and means the Razorbacks are penciled in to potentially finish strong given how well the defense is playing right now.
Potato Bowl
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Bowling Green
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Projection: Toledo vs. Cincinnati
Armed Forces Bowl
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Army
Assuming the Cowboys get to six wins, Mike Gundy’s squad will not be in line for a top-tiered Big 12 tie-in. Oklahoma State lost three straight games and fell well below expectations. Army is one of two unbeaten service academies nearing the midseason point with plenty of chances ahead to spark consideration from the playoff selection committee.
Birmingham Bowl
Projection: Charlotte vs. Boston College
68 Ventures Bowl
Projection: North Texas vs. Arkansas State
Las Vegas Bowl
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Washington
Jedd Fisch has his Year 1 signature win with the Huskies after his team downed Michigan at home. The Sooners were open prior to next week’s showdown with Texas in the annual Red River game. The Longhorns are the SEC’s last remaining unbeaten and Oklahoma would like nothing more than to snuff out that unblemished record.
Holiday Bowl
Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Washington State
Fenway Bowl
Projection: USF vs. Virginia
Pinstripe Bowl
Projection: Iowa vs. Duke
The offense still is not productive enough for the Hawkeyes. Saturday’s 28-point loss to Ohio State was a black eye for Kirk Ferentz’s team. First-year coach Manny Diaz at Duke suffered his first loss of the campaign at Georgia Tech and has a chance to bounce back against UNC in Week 7.
Military Bowl
Projection: Minnesota vs. Navy
Arizona Bowl
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Liberty Bowl
Projection: Arizona vs. Vanderbilt
Clark Lea and the Commodores enter bowl projections for the first time after a thrilling win over top-ranked Alabama, the first in school history over a No. 1 team. Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt got it done in dominant fashion, owning the defending SEC champions at the line of scrimmage.
Sun Bowl
Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Colorado
First Responder Bowl
Projection: Michigan State vs. Arizona State
Bahamas Bowl
Projection: NIU vs. Georgia State
Music City Bowl
Projection: Nebraska vs. Missouri
The Huskers’ victory over previously-unbeaten Rutgers means Matt Rhule’s continues to flex resiliency since the home loss to Illinois and that bodes well for the rest of the way. The Huskers play Indiana and Ohio State over consecutive games coming out of the open date. Missouri’s loss to Texas A&M is the first of several, we project, for the Tigers.
Mayo Bowl
Projection: Illinois vs. Louisville
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
Notre Dame has been the “ACC” rep in this game for the last couple of weeks, but that nearly changed Saturday night before Miami’s major comeback West. Kansas State, as one of the Big 12’s highest non-playoff finishers, heads back to Orlando again as the league’s top team after playoff picks are made.
Alamo Bowl
Projection: USC vs. Utah
Independence Bowl
Projection: UCF vs. Oregon State
Citrus Bowl
Projection: Texas A&M vs. Indiana
The Aggies entered the SEC’s bubble watch in the playoff conversation following Saturday’s beatdown of Missouri. Texas A&M never trailed during its 31-point thumping of the previously-unbeaten Tigers and with quarterback Conner Weigman back in the lineup, Mike Elko now has quarterbacks that can win games.
Gator Bowl
Projection: LSU vs. Syracuse
ReliaQuest Bowl
Projection: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
The lack of plays through the air caught up to Michigan once again, this time resulting in a road loss to Washington. The defending national champions are now pressing panic after their second loss of the season with several tough matchups ahead. Ole Miss erased the loss to Kentucky with a blitzing of South Carolina, but the Rebels need to keep it up to stay within the playoff conversation from the SEC.
Texas Bowl
Projection: Texas Tech vs. Kentucky
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Penn State
The Broncos still have Group of Five champion hopes with their only loss coming to Oregon by three points and they replace JMU as the 12-seed this week. The upcoming matchup with UNLV later this month lost much of its luster following the Rebels’ loss to Syracuse, but that’s still a pivotal contest in the Mountain West and playoff picture. It’s going to be hard to keep Boise State out of this playoff projection if the Broncos continue to win with Ashton Jeanty leading the charge. 
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
No. 7 Tennessee No. 2 Texas (Sugar Bowl)
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Clemson (Peach Bowl)
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 BYU (Fiesta Bowl)
The likelihood of the SEC champion finishing without a loss this season is low, but if Ohio State beats Oregon next weekend in Eugene then the Buckeyes should have a shot at getting the top seed with an unblemished record. They have to beat Michigan, of course. Alabama moves out of the SEC frontrunner’s position this week and the Longhorns move back. That inexplicable loss to Vanderbilt hurts the Crimson Tide. … Clemson moves into the No. 3 seed this week as the ACC’s projected champion.
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