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The Champions League will return next week and feature the first of two legs between the club currently considered the best in the world, Manchester City, and the club long considered the best in the world, Real Madrid. A quick look at the odds shows that Manchester City arae not only favored to advance in the tie, but to win in Madrid Tuesday night.
These odds will likely prove accurate, but even if I don’t expect Madrid to get past City, I can’t shake the feeling that Real Madrid are on the precipice of a renaissance, one that seems modeled after the approach of the team it’ll face in Manchester City.
For all the moral concerns about where Manchester City’s money has come from over the last decade, it’s hard to deny the club took a prudent approach to building its juggernaut. A deliberate and intelligent approach brought City to this point, and Madrid have noticed.
Yes, Kylian Mbappe is (extremely) likely to come this summer, and he’s not what anybody would consider a small move, but Madrid have also added 17-year-old Endrick too. One of the world’s brightest prospects, he’ll join in the summer. During the season, we’ve seen Madrid begin the process of replacing veterans Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Dani Carvajal with younger players who are already blossoming into superstars.
This is the same club of the Galacticos and the one currently run by Florentino Perez, who tried (and is still trying) to bring forth a Super League nobody wants. But he’s also at the helm of a burgeoning super team, where Kylian Mbappe feels more like a finishing stroke than a starting point.
Date: Saturday, April 6 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+
A lot has changed since these clubs met in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals in January. Roma moved on from Jose Mourinho following that 1-0 loss and have seen their fortunes change for the better in Serie A. While the victory was a high point for Lazio, the overall tenor of the season remained disappointing, leading to Maurizio Sarri’s resignation last month. Now, the Derby della Capitale is a battle of Daniel de Rossi and Igor Tudor’s sides.
As I mentioned last week, Tudor’s first goal since taking over has been to improve Lazio defensively. He’s been successful in doing so. The problem is Lazio’s attack remains largely anemic and unreliable. Roma managed an uninspiring scoreless draw against Lecce last time out, but were without Lorenzo Pellegrini for the match, and, to their credit, Lecce executed their game plan to perfection. Pellegrini will return for this match, and Paulo Dybala will likely return to the starting lineup. Roma have struggled with Lazio recently, but this is the week they get that sky-blue monkey off their back. The Pick: Roma (+120)
Date: Sunday, April 7 | Time: 10:30 a.m. ET | Watch: NBC
I’m taking a slight risk here. It’s entirely possible that giving up two goals in the final two minutes to lose to Chelsea 4-3 on Thursday could result in United playing like zombies in this match. There are also the mounting injuries United are dealing with that could be a problem. But you know what? The narrative surrounding the situation is providing some value for us here.
These teams have played twice already this season. The first was a scoreless draw at Anfield, while the second was a 4-3 United win at Old Trafford in the FA Cup. United managed a result in both, and there’s a good chance they do so again here. Liverpool are favored to win the Premier League, but will have their road form to blame if they fail. While the results haven’t been awful (2 points per match on the road), Liverpool’s expected goal (xG) differential in 14 road matches is only +1.3. The match goes one of two ways. Either Liverpool blow the doors off a shellshocked United, or Manchester makes it extremely uncomfortable for 90 minutes. The latter scenario is a lot more likely than the odds suggest. The Pick: Manchester United or Draw (+130)
Date: Sunday, April 7 | Time: 1 p.m. ET | Watch: USA
United’s shock loss earlier this week doesn’t only impact them but Tottenham and Aston Villa as well. The loss left United nine points behind Tottenham in the table, which means it’s highly unlikely either Tottenham or Villa will finish lower than fifth. That’s significant since it’s expected the Premier League will get five teams into next season’s Champions League.
Still, it’s not a guarantee, so Tottenham must continue operating with the plan to take fourth from Villa, and they’re facing a Forest team that’s turned a corner after an awful run to pick up five points in their last three matches. Tottenham home matches have been highly entertaining this season, and I’m betting that that trend will continue. Spurs have played 15 home matches, scoring in each and scoring at least two goals in 11 of them. Overall the matches have averaged 3.4 goals, including an average of 3.75 in the last eight. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+108)
We aren’t hunting big game this weekend, but it’s still a payout of +111.
League Play
49-51
-0.14
Champions League
6-10
-7.71
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