The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren’s deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as draft class analysis from Ryan McCrystal. Click here for a full chapter from the 2023 Football Preview.
With 2024 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to understand how 2024 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let’s look at the Buffalo Bills, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
The Buffalo Bills received a C draft grade from Sharp Football.
The expectation among fans that the Bills would trade up for a wide receiver never made sense in the context of the rest of their offseason. All signs pointed to retooling the roster for the long run, not reaching for immediate needs. So trading down twice before landing Keon Coleman (second round), should not have been a surprise, despite the widespread initial disappointment from the fan base.
The Coleman selection was a risk as his highlight-reel catches prop up an otherwise mediocre college career. Based on route-adjusted data, Coleman’s catch rate was 9.3% below expected in 2023, which ranked 137th out of 144 Power Five receivers. Without the traits to create consistent separation, Coleman must develop into a more reliable pass-catcher.
Cole Bishop (second round) will compete for immediate playing time in a revamped secondary, though he may prove to be more of a developmental prospect based on his fit in Buffalo’s scheme. Bishop had a breakout season in 2022 when operating as Utah’s strong safety, but struggled last year when shifted into a role in the deep secondary. When lined up in the deep secondary last year, Bishop made a play on the ball once every 190 coverage snaps, ranked 25th out of 35 Pac-12 safeties. That said, the speed and athleticism are certainly there for continued development.
DeWayne Carter (third round) is a tough evaluation given his age (he turns 24 during the season) and uneven production. Carter generated a 4.5% pressure rate last season, ranked 30th among ACC interior linemen. The previous year, however, he ranked third with an 11.5% pressure rate. Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones are each under contract for at least two more years, so Carter is likely just a depth piece for a couple of seasons.
Ray Davis (fourth round) has a chance to be James Cook’s backup as a rookie, though he’ll need to be a more efficient runner if he’s ever thrust into a larger role. When contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Davis was stuffed in the backfield 50.8% of the time, ranked 13th out of 15 SEC running backs. That’s a concerning stat for a 220-pound ball carrier who should fight through early contact more consistently.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (fifth round) and Tylan Grable (sixth round) both add depth to the offensive line. The plan is likely for Granger to back up Connor McGovern at center, but since McGovern is making the shift from guard, Granger’s presence provides some valuable insurance in the event the transition doesn’t go as planned. Grable is a former tight end with only two years of offensive line experience at the FBS level (he previously played at Jacksonville State), but he has size and athletic traits worth developing.
Edefuan Ulofoshio (fifth round) spent six years at Washington and battled injuries, but is coming off a productive final year. He’s a reliable tackler and was effective on blitzes, so he should be able to win a backup linebacker job and contribute on special teams.
Javon Solomon (fifth round) will be one of the shortest pass-rushers in the NFL and may struggle to transition to the league. In five career games against Power Five opponents, Solomon generated a dismal 6.4% pressure rate (13.4% against everyone else).
Daequan Hardy (sixth round) primarily played slot corner at Penn State, and his size likely dictates he sticks in that role. He has a good chance to make the team based on his special teams experience, including on punt returns.
Buffalo wrapped up its draft by selecting a guy who’s never played football: Travis Clayton (seventh round). Clayton has elite length and athletic testing numbers, so Buffalo will attempt to groom him for a job on the offensive line down the road, but don’t expect to see him on the field anytime soon.
It’s tough to get excited about this draft class for Buffalo. Coleman and Bishop appear to be the only rookies with a clear path to a starting role, both short and long term. The Bills added some much-needed depth at multiple positions, so this class will contribute, but there’s not a ton of long-term potential.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full-color PDF, the 2024 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought process abounds in every team chapter and article.
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