Patrick Mahomes won’t be a top-five fantasy quarterback. Raheem Mostert will score more touchdowns than he had in his first eight seasons combined. Puka Nacua will outscore Cooper Kupp by over 130 PPR points. A rookie will lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring, ahead of superstar Travis Kelce.
If you made any of these bold predictions before the 2023 NFL season, you would have been laughed at, heckled, and probably fitted for a straitjacket.
You also would have been right.
Weird stuff happens in the NFL all the time. As a diehard Dallas Cowboys fan, I hope something weird will happen like my team returning to the Super Bowl.
Dare to dream!
Anyways, here are 10 (mostly) bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season that seem very unlikely to happen, but what the hell! Did you see Kyren Williams scoring 15 touchdowns last season? Me neither.
Alright, let’s have some fun…
These predictions are meant to be bold (at least in most cases), and I’m not saying I even agree with some of them. This is one of those cases.
The Texans had an incredible offseason that saw them add Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to an offense that already boasts Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. That makes Stroud a can’t-miss this season, right?
That’s the consensus in the fantasy community, and it should be as such.
But, when something seems like an absolute lock, often something bad happens to muck it up. I don’t know what that bad thing might look like for Stroud. Maybe there’s an injury, maybe the pressure to perform is too much, I don’t know. But when everyone (and I mean everyone) is in on a player (and everyone is in on Stroud), that always makes me nervous.
Success as a runner is paramount to fantasy success for quarterbacks, especially rookies. Daniels has that sort of skill set, as he rushed for 700-plus yards in each of his final three years in college. That includes last season when he recorded 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. While those projections are a little outlandish for his first pro year, I can see Daniels hitting 700 yards. That would also guarantee him a top-10 finish.
Cook was pretty good last season, finishing as the RB12 in PPR leagues. However, his 13.7 fantasy point-per-game average was barely in the top 20 among running backs. I think he can do better in 2024. Why? Well, when offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over the Bills system last season, Cook averaged 19.6 touches and 16.4 PPR points. Those totals, over a full year, would be a real breakout. Cook also has very little competition for touches.
Moss has never reached 800 rushing yards in a single season at the NFL level, but he’s never been in a position to succeed. Now in Cincinnati, he’ll finally be a featured back. Over the last two seasons in games where he’s seen at least 18 touches, Moss has averaged an impressive 93.5 yards on the ground and 16.2 fantasy points. If we assume he’ll see 225-250 carries, Moss should exceed 1,200 yards with relative ease.
The Chargers signed Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins this offseason, so Vidal will have to impress in training camp to open the season as a starter. Even if he doesn’t, though, the rookie should push for touches based on talent alone.
The great nephew of MLB legend Hank Aaron, Vidal brings a physical style of play that coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman love. Also, keep in mind Edwards is a one-dimensional back and Dobbins has a history of serious injuries, so Vidal could be a great sleeper.
I have a healthy fantasy man crush on Harrison Jr., who I see being the next rookie wideout to produce huge totals. That includes breaking the record for rookie receiving yards set by Nacua just last season (1,486).
The top three best yardage totals from first-year receivers have all come since 2020 (Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson), and I can see Harrison Jr. being the latest to join the list. Nowadays, 1,500 receiving yards is very possible.
Nacua is coming off a historic rookie season, and he’s now being drafted at the end of the first round based on current average draft position data. Still, my fantasy “spidey senses” keep tingling and I simply can't ignore them!
Are we drafting Nacua based on his ceiling? After all, he was far better in games where Cooper Kupp was injured (108.4 YPG) compared to games where both wideouts were active (78.7 YPG). So … what if Kupp stays healthy?
I know he’s missed 13 games over the last two seasons, but he’ll enter camp at 100 percent and he still has a great rapport with Matthew Stafford. Maybe this prediction isn’t so bold, but Nacua is going about 30 picks ahead of Kupp in drafts. That could make Kupp the better draft value.
Nabers won’t make the same sort of first-year impact as Harrison Jr., but I can see him being a fantasy starter in Year 1. After all, the rookie doesn’t have a ton of competition for targets, even more so now that Darren Waller retired.
Nabers also comes from a college that has produced some fantasy stars in recent years. In fact, the last three wideouts to be drafted out of LSU in the first round (Chase – 2021, Jefferson – 2020, Odell Beckham Jr. – 2014) all produced at least 1,305 receiving yards in their rookie campaigns.
Pitts and London are in a great position to make statistical strides, as the Falcons added veteran gunslinger Kirk Cousins to the offense. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Atlanta’s top two options in the pass attack.
In each of his five full years in Minnesota, Cousins helped to produce at least one 1,000-yard receiver. In 2018, he had two 1,000-yard receivers, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. In the offense of new coordinator Zac Robinson, Cousins should throw the ball 500-plus times with ease. With London and Pitts being the two main beneficiaries, the duo should push for a grand.
McBride didn’t do much in his first six games of last season, as he saw just 15 targets while playing behind Zach Ertz. When Ertz went down with an injury, however, McBride turned into an absolute fantasy banger. Over his next 11 games, he was targeted 91 times and averaged 14.1 fantasy points. That was good enough to finish fourth in points during that timeframe. McBride will enter this season as the second option in the passing game for the Cardinals, and the rapport he gained with Kyler Murray in those games is invaluable.
MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Formerly of CBS Sports, NFL Network and SirusXM, Michael was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks. His work can now be found on SI, Westwood One Radio and the Bleav Podcast Network.
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