Baltimore Sports. Period
NFL training camps are set to begin in July, and just like the players on the field, the key to any successful season is preparation.
The same can be said for fantasy football. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer, offering scenarios and feedback for each position, starting with the No. 1 pick. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league. We will mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex and non-PPR (standard) draft.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Do not take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn on notifications from your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
Let’s get started with the first mock draft of the 2024 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Round 2, Pick 12: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Round 3, Pick 1: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 4, Pick 12: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 5, Pick 1: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Round 6, Pick 12: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 7, Pick 1: Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 8, Pick 12: Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Round 9, Pick 1: Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 10, Pick 12: Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Round 11, Pick 1: Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets
Round 12, Pick 12: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Round 13, Pick 1: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Round 14, Pick 12: Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 15, Pick 1: New Orleans Saints D/ST
Round 16, Pick 12: Jake Elliott, K, Philadelphia Eagles
Observations:
There is only one player who should be going No. 1 overall, and it is the touchdown machine that is Christian McCaffrey. He is on the top of my draft board after finishing with 100-plus more fantasy points than the No. 2 running back from last season, Raheem Mostert. McCaffrey is a cheat code at the running back position as long as he remains healthy.
The downfall to picking first is waiting 23 picks to make your next selection. The beauty of picking first (or last) is the ability to go with back-to-back picks to set the foundation of your roster. I was ecstatic to see Chris Olave fall to me with my second pick. Olave is currently ranked as WR12 and 20th overall, according to FantasyPros. I have the third-year Saints receiver as my WR8 and 13th player overall after back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and little competition for targets.
The 14th player overall in my rankings is Isiah Pacheco. I also considered Derrick Henry in this spot, but I think Pacheco is in line for a monster season with Jerick McKinnon no longer with the Chiefs. I’m a big fan of the Ravens’ prize acquisition, but Pacheco is going to get more work as a pass catcher than Henry.
The receiver options were plentiful with my fifth and sixth picks, so I went with the top two available on my draft board in DeVonta Smith and Zay Flowers. Smith has finished with more than 1,000 yards and exactly seven touchdowns each of the past two seasons, even with A.J. Brown on the Eagles’ roster. Flowers is the top wide receiver for an explosive Ravens offense. I’m expecting a massive boost in production for Flowers in his second season.
Two players who were in contention for the two picks prior managed to fall to me in Rounds 6 and 7. George Pickens and Christian Kirk are the No. 1 receivers for their respective teams, and I have each of them ranked in the top 20 of wide receivers.
This is the stage of the draft I start to consider drafting a tight end. I believe Kyle Pitts is a major discount at his current ranking. He’s been a thorn in the side for fantasy managers the last two seasons as a high draft pick without the big rewards, but with a new offense and Kirk Cousins now at quarterback, Pitts can finally live up to the hype.
The next three picks all add depth to my roster. Chase Brown and Ty Chandler are both backups to injury-prone running backs. Brown also figures to get most of the pass-catching work for the Bengals. Mike Williams has posted big fantasy numbers when healthy, so getting him this late in the draft feels like a bargain.
A strategy I’m leaning toward this year is doubling down at quarterback in the late rounds, and I decided to use consecutive picks on the position after last year’s carnage at QB. I have Jared Goff significantly higher in my rankings than most in the fantasy community as QB9, compared to QB13 at FantasyPros and an unbelievable QB21 in ESPN’s rankings. Jayden Daniels is the high-upside pick who could explode into a top-five player if he lives up to his potential.
This is a really nice squad, but it lacks the running back depth I usually covet in the later rounds. Having Christian McCaffrey to anchor the position eases some concerns, but an injury to CMC or Pacheco could leave me scrambling at running back. The depth at receiver is terrific, so flipping a wideout or two for a running back is a possibility.
Another reason why I’m not overly concerned is that diamonds in the rough exist, like Kyren Williams from a year ago. The first part of any successful season is the draft, but landing a player like Williams on waivers is just as important. It’s much easier to find running backs than elite receivers.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
You can do your own mock draft in seconds by clicking here.
See all posts by Joe Serpico. Follow Joe Serpico on Twitter at @JoeSerp
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Covering Baltimore sports, from high school to the pros since 2006.
