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While the 2024 NFL regular season is still months away, now is the time to start preparing for redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six players that are overpriced draft values based on MyFantasyLeague ADP for redraft leagues.
There is plenty to like about Williams, even as a rookie. However, everyone needs to temper their expectations. He has an outstanding supporting cast, including three talented wide receivers – DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Unfortunately, anyone drafting him as the sixth quarterback off the board is reaching. C.J. Stroud had arguably the top rookie season for a quarterback ever in 2023. Yet, Stroud was only the QB9 as a rookie, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. While he has significant upside, Williams shouldn’t be a top-six quarterback drafted.
The former Texas A&M star was outstanding as a rookie, ranking as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, Achane averaged 7.8 yards per rushing attempt, a 12.6% explosive run rate, and 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity (per Fantasy Points Data). However, those numbers aren’t repeatable. More importantly, he struggled to stay healthy as a rookie. After Miami brought back Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright, Achane shouldn’t get drafted ahead of featured guys like Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco.
While he was once a top-tier running back, I refuse to draft Ekeler this season. The veteran went from a featured heavy workload with the Los Angeles Chargers to Brian Robinson Jr.‘s partner in crime. Furthermore, Ekeler’s production has severely declined over the past few years. He has averaged 2.99 or fewer yards after contact per attempt in back-to-back seasons. By comparison, the veteran averaged 3.01 or more yards each of his first five years in the NFL (per PFF). Ekeler is ranked outside of my top 36 running backs.
Unfortunately, there are two reasons why I won’t draft Diggs this year. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. The veteran was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston. His days as a must-start fantasy receiver are over.
Minnesota underwent massive changes at the quarterback position this offseason. Addison was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%). Furthermore, seven of his 10 receiving scores came in the eight games with Kirk Cousins under center. The rookie also scored 40% of his receiving touchdowns with Justin Jefferson out of the lineup. Addison was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. Fantasy players should temper expectations for the second-year player.
Hockenson’s ADP could drastically change over the next several weeks. The veteran suffered a torn ACL late last year, causing many to believe he won’t be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Meanwhile, fantasy players should worry about him with questions at the quarterback position, especially coming off a significant injury. Hopefully, Minnesota will have an update on Hockenson’s timeline at the start of training camp. Fantasy players should avoid the veteran at his current TE10 ADP until the team provides an update on his health.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
Mike Fanelli
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@Mike_NFL2
Mike Fanelli is a featured contributor for FantasyPros. He is also a featured contributor for BettingPros, RotoBaller, Pro Football Network, and the Faceoff Sports Network. Mike is also the former Editor in Chief and fantasy football expert for Prime Time Sports Talk. Follow him on Twitter @Mike_NFL2 and reach out anytime for fantasy football help.
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