High-stakes fantasy football has seen tremendous growth over the years. What was once considered a high-roller exclusive has now drawn the interest of fantasy football, DFS and gambling enthusiasts alike. Since 2004, the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) has been at the forefront of that conversation. Below, we look at some overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on NFFC based on average draft position (ADP).
Since his offseason trade to Houston, wide receiver Stefon Diggs has become one of the most polarizing players in early fantasy football drafts. Despite being valued at No. 40 overall in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), Diggs is going around eight spots higher (32.03 ADP) in NFFC drafts over the past month.
Whether you’re over or under on his ADP could depend on which player you think shows up in Houston. Will it be the Diggs that produced in the first half of last season or the one that faltered down the stretch? Even during Diggs’ good stretch, he didn’t showcase the same long speed and explosion as in previous seasons. His production was mostly volume-based.
After averaging 21.5 PPR points on 10.8 targets per game in Weeks 1-9, Diggs only scored 9.7 PPR points on 7.9 targets per game in Weeks 10-18. Diggs did produce a couple of blow-up spots against Philadelphia and Miami in the back half of the season but he also finished as the WR45 or worse on six separate occasions.
Being paired with CJ Stroud certainly helps Diggs’ stock but there’s also a lot of mouths to feed in Houston. Wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell broke out last season, while tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Joe Mixon will also earn a handful of targets each game.
Is there a world where Diggs leaps everyone and instantly becomes a target-hog WR1? Absolutely. Diggs is on his best behavior when heavily involved and Houston is well aware of his history. On the other hand, it’s hard to justify a top-32 selection on such a question mark.
Derrick Henry has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers over the past half-decade, but his price on NFFC is becoming increasingly expensive by the day. While I see the appeal of Henry in his first season paired with Lamar Jackson, the round-plus difference between ADP and ECR is hard to justify for a running back on the wrong side of 30.
I’m not against drafting the consistently great Henry, but I prefer him somewhere between where he’s going on NFFC and where he’s ranked in our ECR. After all, there are a few red flags. As mentioned earlier, Henry is on the wrong side of 30 and has racked up an astronomical amount of carries between high school, college football and the NFL. Henry has been a workhorse and has shown little sign of slowing down, but running backs have historically broken down around his age.
Even if Henry outlasts father time for a few more seasons, his age isn’t his lone red flag. After an offseason move to Baltimore, Henry is also adjusting to life in Baltimore. While the Ravens’ smash-mouth offense seems likely to mesh nicely with Henry’s game, we don’t truly know what impact Lamar Jackson will have on the running back’s volume.
Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams has scored 15+ PPR points zero times in his two-year NFL career and is still being drafted as the WR47 in NFFC drafts over the past month. That’s not overly expensive, but I prefer potential lottery tickets like rookies Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman.
A third-year breakout is possible, but we may have to come to terms with reality. What if Williams is who he’s shown us to be? While he’s shown brief flashes of brilliance, his inconsistent hands and offensive role might be too much to overcome. Williams has a unique skill set that will open things up for others, but it’s hard to imagine the third-year pro taking a significant amount of volume away from Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and that backfield.
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Jordan Woodson
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Jordan Woodson is a featured writer at FantasyPros, providing unique insights and in-depth analysis.
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