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Hugh Freeze sucks. There, I said it.
Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because I don’t like you or your team.
Murray State
Buffalo
Boston College
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
Massachusetts
We’ll get to the uncomfortable part of talking about Auburn in 2024 when we get to the coaching portion. For now, let’s reacquaint ourselves with a team that Missouri hasn’t beaten since the end of the Vietnam War.
When last our intrepid Tigers met the insidious Tigers-of-the-Plains, it was the year 2022 and things were not great. Missouri’s defense had found its footing but the offense had no option other than to run out a clearly injured (and limited) Brady Cook behind an ineffective line and running backs who struggled to create. Despite playing a terrible game Mizzou nearly won the game twice: once on a chip shot field goal and once with Nathaniel Peat scurrying down the sideline towards the end zone.
Of course, you know what happened: the game winning chip shot field goal was missed badly by Harrison Mevis and the Peat run in overtime featured a fumbled ball going out of the end zone. Game over, bad guys win.
And that win salvaged the under siege Bryan Harsin for a few more weeks. He was nearly usurped after a tumultuous 2021 season – one that featured Auburn’s first losing season since 2012 and the worst recruiting class at Auburn ever – and only survived an off-season booster coup (featuring made-up allegations of an affair) by being in Mexico for nearly a full month while his AD smoothed the waters. But the AD soon left and Harsin didn’t even make it through Halloween before a 3-5 record caught up with him and sent him packing as the coach with the lowest winning percentage at Auburn since Earl Brown in 1950 and the two worst recruiting classes of the modern recruiting era.
Given that Auburn’s booster corps was upset with Gus Malzahn’s perpetually 8-4 records, you just knew that they were steamed enough at their own gaffe that they would do anything to bring back perceived competence to The Plains. And what did they do? They hired Hugh Freeze. More on that in a bit.
Here’s what Freeze did in his first year:
3-game winning streak, 4-game losing streak, 3-game winning streak, 3-game losing streak. And it isn’t rocket surgery to figure out how the wins and losses were doled out:
The worst part, however, was that Freeze is considered an offensive genius who is custom built to beat Nick Saban while gacking away a few games that his teams absolutely should not lose. Well…
So Auburn got all the bad stuff with none of the good in Year One. And even the “offensive innovation” that Freeze has a reputation of isn’t even true anymore. It’s the same problem that I’ll shout at anyone who wants to hire Art Briles: yes, Freeze/Briles were known as offensive innovators 14 years ago but now every offense in the world does at least a little bit of what they did back in the day, and most of them do it better than Freeze/Briles! So why hire him? What are the actual upsides? And do the Year One troubles continue in subsequent years with an a cartoonishly-angry group of boosters grinding their teeth at yet another failed hire? Or is it simply Year One hiccups for a guy who has shown to turn things around after a false start?
Ok. So let’s talk about Hugh Freeze.
First, Freeze is a guy who absolutely searches his name on social media sites and news feeds and will…”proactively”…engage with anyone that he believes is portraying him in a false or negative light. It’s happened multiple times, most prominently to Chelsea Andrews.
Freeze values his character a lot and seems to find it very important for others to view him in a similar way that he views himself. Which…ok. Weird behavior, but not out of the ordinary I guess.
The problems you run into, then, are what he says versus what he does. If you follow him at all on social media or listen to any of his press conference he’s quick to bring up his religion and how important it is to him. Which, again, that’s fine, that doesn’t hurt anybody. But that’s in contrast to three girls from the high school that he coached at accusing him of unacceptable behavior (I’ll just link it here, trigger warning if you choose to click through). Or how he defended former Baylor/current Liberty athletic director Ian McCaw as “the most Jesus like leader I have ever seen or been around” despite McCaw’s Baylor program being involved in a horrendous sexual assault cover up (and then going to Liberty which subsequently featured another student-athlete sexual assault cover up). Or the fact that Freeze made dozens of calls to an escort service on his school-sanctioned cell phone and claimed it was “a misdial”.
People are complex and far from perfect, I understand that. But to be so vocal about one’s religion and make claims of one’s own purity or upstanding nature while tutting those who fail to meet that standard…and then turn around and operate well outside NCAA rules in building its incredible Ole Miss rosters from 2013-2015? And then vocally blaming the coach that came before you for said recruiting violations? That seems particularly devious! And while I’m on the record for not caring about cheating in recruiting, it’s not great to cite examples of upstanding nature and adhering to religious teachings of honesty and goodwill while doing the opposite at your job, blaming others for that activity, and utilizing escort services.
But if you can win football games you can do whatever you want, so it doesn’t really matter in the end. And as long as he can actually pull Auburn out of its tailspin – something he’s done at Ole Miss and Liberty – then he has nothing to fear about consistency in character.
Derrick Nix – Offensive Coordinator: Nix is a career position coach who has finally received his first shot as a coordinator…and Freeze will probably be calling the plays in the fall. Former OC Philip Montgomery was unable to coax anything out of the passing game and so Nix’s passing acumen as a receivers coach could potentially help in the further rehab of the Tiger offense. But it seemed in the spring that Freeze was taking play calling responsibilities in the fall so it will be interesting to see how the responsibilities are divvied up (and the blame….ah who am I kidding it’ll all go to Nix).
D.J. Durkin – Defensive Coordinator: Most recently part of Texas A&M’s collection of “awful and disgraced former head coaches” staff, Durkin once again gets a premier job despite being a truly awful person and coach. In case you are unaware, Durkin was the head coach at Maryland when a young offensive lineman, Jordan McNair, died. In the ensuing investigation it was discovered that Durkin’s hand-picked strength and conditioning coach, Rick Court, was running an excessively aggressive and psychologically abusive program, including food-based punishments (withholding and force feeding), the forced consumption of one players’ own vomit, and forced hazing-based punishments which had been illegal for quite some time in the state of Maryland, including not having proper staff on hand for handling heat stroke-related health issues (which was responsible for McNair’s death). After an investigation Durkin was not found liable for McNair’s death, although the implications of the investigation either meant 1.) he knew exactly what was going on and allowed it, therefore not being suitable to work in college football, OR 2.) he had no idea a direct report was treating his players in this manner, therefore not being suitable to work in college football. But, again, if you’re good at winning football games then you have nothing to worry about when it comes to job security, and Durkin’s defenses tend to, somehow, manage at least Top 30 status. So there’s nothing for him to worry about.
Charles Kelly – Co-Defensive Coordinator: Kelly was a longtime Florida State defensive coordinator before making a one-year stop at the side show known as Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes football program. Kelly is a little long in the tooth but has coached more All-Americans and had more success at blue blood programs than almost anyone else out there, so he should be a welcome addition to Auburn’s staff.
Kent Austin – Quarterbacks
Marcus Davis – Wide Receivers
Ben Aigamaua – Tight Ends
Jake Thornton – Offensive Line
Josh Aldredge – Defensive Edge
Vontrell King-Williams – Defensive Tackles
Wesley McGriff – Cornerbacks
There were 23 transfers out of Freeze’s Auburn program but I have a feeling that they aren’t super missed. As previously stated former Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin was a terrible recruiter – both in stars and production – but it’s still jarring to see a mere 9 of the 23 transfers out end up at P4 programs. Granted, a lot of these guys were the class of ‘21, a recruiting class that has a disproportionate number of high-profile flame outs due to their senior season being the COVID year of 2020. But still! Auburn! Blue-blood SEC program! Fielding a team where 14 transfers wind up on G5 rosters! It’s hard to believe.
For Auburn’s transfers in, though, is a different story. Georgia State’s Robert Lewis and Penn State’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith immediately became #1 and #2 respectively in returning receiving production. Percy Lewis is a great offensive lineman to add to a Tiger line that was in dire need of a talent upgrade, as well as defensive linemen Philip Blindi from Indiana and Trill Carter from Texas. Add in a few blue chippers from Alabama and A&M and, suddenly, Auburn is looking much more like its usual elite recruiting self. But hiring mercenaries on the line doesn’t answer all the questions, so we’ll see how it translates to production and wins.
Meanwhile, ol’ Hugh Freeze still seems to have the magic when it comes to high school recruiting. Again, it’s insane to me that the 10th-best recruiting class in the nation is the 6th-best recruiting class in the SEC, but Freeze nabbed some big names in his first full recruiting cycle, particularly in Cam Coleman as a late signing day flip away from Texas A&M.
As previously stated Auburn’s offense was very bad. Third-worst in the SEC bad. And that was with two renowned offensive minds in Freeze and Art Briles-disciple Philip Montgomery running the offensive show.
The running game was great, ranking 32nd overall and 19th in getting at least 4-yards on the ground. That meant that their standard downs offense was pretty good as well, ranking a healthy 20th in standard downs success rates and 33rd in efficiency.
But once they were knocked off schedule they plummeted to an astounding 111th in passing downs situations thanks to a 102nd-ranked passing attack. Quarterback Payton Thorne was barely over a 61% completion rating with a miserable 4.9 ANY/A and his receiving corps did him no favors with some of the worst drop rates in the country.
If it was a receiver problem than that has been answered thanks to the transfers out of most of the receiving corps and the aforementioned transfers in of their two top receivers. In addition, there are four standout freshmen – including the 5-star Cam Coleman – who should be given equal opportunity to break in to the rotation.
All three running backs return as well, meaning the ground game should pick up right where it left off. If this offense still stalls then that falls on Thorne, who many view as a questionable quarterback to salvage a second-year in a not-there-but-close-to-it prove it year.
At this point Payton Thorne is who he is: a mid-level quarterback who will go as far as his receiver’s YAC will take him. He’s not super mobile, he’s not particularly talented in the deep ball, and doesn’t provide elite presence or an ability to find the open man in crunch time. That sort of quarterback can work if you were to surround him with other-worldly talent (the Ken Dorsey effect, if you will) but given that the proven talent is in the running back room and the receivers are all in their first year in the system (and four are freshmen!), it’s not a given that Thorne can rise to the occasion and lift this offense out of mediocrity on his own. The big thing he needs to work on is explosive plays: Auburn was one of the worst at creating big plays and part of that falls on the quarterback failing to connect on big passes or being successful enough through the air to open up opportunities for running backs.
As previously stated Auburn returns their top three running backs – and top four rushers – for a ground game that ranked in the Top 25 despite averaging some of the highest run rates in any situation. Defenses knew that running the ball was all that they could do and they still couldn’t always stop it, which is a testament to the line and backs. Even with the line losing a few starters the backfield is talented enough that they should see very little drop off in production.
Unless it’s Brock Bowers, I’m usually skeptical of any passing attack where a tight end leads a team in targets, receptions, and yards, which was the case for Auburn in 2023. However, they shed all the dead weight in the receiving room, returned said tight end (Rivaldo Fairweather) and second-leading receiver (Caleb Burton III) and brought in two guys who were much better than any guy on the roster last year. Robert Lewis is an over-looked prospect who did very well at Georgia State while KeAndre Lambert-Smith is a classic “blue chip talent stuck in the shackles knows as Penn State’s offense”. Both should add instant impact to a receiving corps that fluctuated from bad to awful for most of last year.
A running game tends to be only as good as its line and Auburn’s offensive line was pretty dang good in run blocking last year. They lose starting guards Gunnar Britton and Kam Stutts as well as injured center Avery Jones but return All-Freshman Connor Lew at center as well as two tackles from Akron and Mississippi State. Auburn will have options but, other than quarterback, the offensive line is the thing that could derail an Auburn offensive renaissance in Year Two.
Ron Roberts was tasked with fielding a perfect defense to pair with an imperfect offense and, given those massive limitations and pressure, he did pretty well for himself as the Tigers finished 29th in defensive SP+. They tended to give up a few too many big plays and were lackluster against the run but were a Top 25 unit against the pass and a solid havoc team. But Roberts chose to take a role at Billy Napier’s Florida staff, leaving Hugh Freeze to search far and wide for a talented individual with a terrible past so he could play up the “I forgive and give people a new chance at life” aspect of his personal philosophy. Enter D.J. Durkin, recently of Texas A&M.
A&M’s defense was, essentially, a better version of Auburn’s defense so Durkin should be able to fit right in. However, if fans are hoping for fewer explosive plays allowed and better tackling, I’m afraid they’ll have to buckle in and get used to the same bumpy ride for at least another year.
To be fair, defenses that emphasize havoc tend to also give up big plays too, so it’s less a bug and more a feature. And the actual problem with last year’s defense was less the secondary giving up big plays and more a lack of big plays made by the defensive line, which ranked 98th in havoc rate. Freeze addressed that by importing an overachieving edge rusher from Arkansas State, Keyron Crawford, who is definitely being overlooked as an impact transfer after finishing with 14.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. Former Texas rivals Trill Carter (from the Longhorns) and Isaiah Raikes (from A&M) come in to add depth to the interior of the line, while disruptive former Hoosier Philip Blidi adds a double-team-machine to the mix as well.
Auburn’s defense should make a leap this year, and regardless of how terrible a human being he is, Durkin usually fields good defenses, regardless of location or resources. If the offense is held back by anything this year he should be in place to deploy a defense that can at least hold the line for most of their games.
Auburn’s non-con is deluxe, offering up awful New Mexico and Louisiana-Monroe squads to complement ACC member California and an FCS opponent to open the year.
But in the new-look SEC, many pundits view the caliber of your schedule by determining who/where your easiest three conference games are and who/where your hardest three conference games are.
Easiest three SEC games? Vanderbilt at home (projected SP+ rating: -9.7), Arkansas at home (4.7), at Kentucky (12.4), That’s two of the projected bottom three teams and the 10th best team on the road. You’d probably prefer the home/road splits to swap but, overall, very good.
Hardest three SEC games? At Georgia (36.3), at Alabama (29.1), at Missouri (23.1). Assuming it’s harder to win on the road than at home, it’s not a terrible thing that a rebuilding team has all three of their toughest games on the road.
But I always tend to view the “toss up” games, or the ones that aren’t “automatic” wins or losses because every team is going to have those. And outside of the hardest three and easiest three, an Auburn team projected to be 31st overall and 11th in the SEC gets Oklahoma and A&M, projected 7th and 8th in the SEC and ten points better than Auburn in SP+. That sucks and it could mean that crazy-pants Auburn – who is not renowned for their patience – gets fed another 6-6 regular season. Even for a guy like Hugh Freeze who is the perfect cultural and gamesman fit for Auburn, that’s a tough sell.
For Missouri, this is the early morning homecoming game right after the road trip to Massachusetts. Yes, early homecoming sucks. Yes, Missouri hasn’t beaten Auburn since the Nixon administration.
I don’t have a great read on what Freeze’s Auburn can be, even after the 3,000 words I just wrote. The guy can still recruit but a lot of his program management and offensive philosophies are dated and now he’s going to be the call calling plays. And even though he’s almost always guaranteed to lose multiple stupid games per year, he’s also nearly guaranteed to win a few games that he has no business winning. And a Mizzou team in the middle of their toughest stretch in a sleepy, early kickoff against a (possible) overlooked foe? Man…that’s Freeze’s jam right there.
But it is the lone home game in the middle 4-game stretch of the year which features three road games. Mizzou should be amped to win, not only for homecoming and a chance to finally beat Auburn, but to show that they are the established, nouveau riche program of the SEC and deliver a smack down to a rebuilding team that is desperate to get back to glory.
Auburn is one of two bingo squares that hasn’t been darkened in the “Missouri wins against SEC foes” blackout challenge. This would be a great year to alter that fact.
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