I used to believe doing best ball drafts was a great way to prepare for my redraft leagues.
Think about it. The scoring system is (usually) the same. We’re drafting some of the same players at similar values. And since you typically have to pay to enter best ball leagues, everyone has skin in the game. To me, it seemed like a win-win.
But one format asks us to predict the twists and turns of a 17-game season. Another allows us to get to September 10th to reassess our roster. Accordingly, our mindset has to change when approaching managed leagues. So, I did a quick mock draft to reorient myself ahead of the 2024 season.
Normally, you’d see a list of industry analysts I got to join my mock. There’d be big names and an up-and-coming analyst you’ve seen on social media.
No need for that anymore.
We’ve got our own Draft Champion tool to rapidly simulate drafts from as many angles as possible. From switching site ADP to roster-construction strategy, the tool uses internal logic and our rankings and tiers to help you evaluate your squads.
I randomly set my draft position in a 12-team league with half-PPR scoring and wound up in the sixth spot. Honestly, I’m not as comfortable with the six-hole. By consensus ADP, I’d rather have a top-3 pick.
Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill have been the top players in their position before. The first two did it just last season. And all three have the runway to repeat in 2024. Afterward, we’re betting on talent and situation. Regardless, after starting the simulated mock, the first five players taken simultaneously surprised me and made me nod my head.
Any rational analyst will tell you Bijan Robinson at 1.03 is absurd. It’s too early. Breece Hall earned more touches and hit higher marks in most efficiency metrics. But everyone has the Wild Card in their league to make such a pick. You’ll see a swing like this in most home leagues. So, I wasn’t too surprised.
In any case, Team 3’s aggression left me with a gift. Ja’Marr Chase slid to the 1.06. But as I mentioned, Chase doesn’t give me the same sense of security like the first three. Even as a Bengals fan (actually, especially as a Bengals fan), I’ve seen the best and worst of Cincinnati’s alpha WR.
Chase’s highest single-season target share is 24.5%. On the one hand, he hit that mark just last season. He’s continuing to grow as defenses adjust. However, the former LSU star sat outside the top 12 in every opportunity metric, from target share to air yards. Not to mention, both he and Joe Burrow missed time with injury. Of course, we all remember the 2021 flashes. But, like most of the options available deeper into the first round, we’re projecting a leap.
My general strategy through the first six rounds is to let my previous decision (and my leaguemates’ choices) inform my next one. In PPR leagues, I prefer a two-WR open, and with some sites requiring three starting WRs (plus a flex), leaning into my strength makes sense. So, I was able to capture good value while ensuring a strong start to my squad.
Again, the differences between this board and what you’d find on a site like Underdog are remarkable. Admittedly, the scoring difference shifts things around, but the positional value in just the first 36 picks was worth noting.
The RB thirst had me rethinking my approach. At this point, I could employ a Hero RB strategy or stay balanced. In this case, I opted for another RB plus a quick detour at TE to close out the early rounds.
Before we head into the mid-rounds, let’s look at some of the other rosters.
I’ve already filled out most of my starting roster. A QB will likely be my target in the next few rounds, but adding depth is also a key component of the middle rounds.
So, here’s a benefit of evenly building your roster from the start. You can pick up value as it comes. For instance, the Draft Champion’s Draft Assistant provided the following WRs at the 78th-overall pick.
I see three rookies, an aging vet (well ahead of his ADP), and a guy likely catching passes from Sam Darnold for most of this year. In fairness, I’m under-selling all of them. But the point is I don’t have to take a WR here. I can look elsewhere. And since I noted my RB group was weak, a pivot to address my ground game lined up with who was available.
The bot in the fifth spot took my guy. Ideally, I’d have selected David Montgomery. But both fit into a similar archetype of RB. Harris and D-Mont took nearly half of their teams’ totes when healthy. And, critically, they were both the primary red-zone rusher for their team. Montgomery has the benefit of a more efficient offense, but Harris should have the volume to keep their fantasy values close.
In essence, I’m done drafting by the eighth round. Kyler Murray posted four top-12 finishes after returning from his ACL rehab and now has a phenom at WR and TE causing havoc downfield. With my starters filled, I can hunt for more value to close out the draft.
The Draft Champion algorithm must disagree with one of my WR sleeper picks for this year. I’m devastated. Jahan Dotson would’ve been a viable alternative. Washington’s offense looks primed to become fantasy-relevant with Kliff Kingsbury back in the saddle. After maintaining a 15.0 aDOT his rookie season, Dotson’s downfield nature clearly didn’t fit with Sam Howell. Jayden Daniels’s penchant for looking downfield has the potential to bring Dotson back into our good graces this season.
Let’s look at the other teams through twelve rounds.
The main takeaway isn’t the names but the trends. RBs went earlier than expected, along with an overpriced QB or TE. Additionally, adjusting to the trends is how we can keep our edge in the draft. Your league may have a WR avalanche or a QB run that somehow leaves you with Baker Mayfield. So, continually reassessing your roster and how your leaguemates value each position will keep your team ahead of the rest.
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