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Last season, the Chiefs, initially perceived as vulnerable, emerged as a dominant playoff force and secured their third Super Bowl title in five years. Doubts arose about their capabilities following a second-half slump. They led the NFL in drops, averaging 2.6 per game, and ranked 24th in rushing yards. With offseason enhancements to their offensive line and wide receiver corps, the Chiefs aim to rectify these issues to be even better in 2024.
Below the CBS Sports Fantasy staff will take a look into the Chiefs’ entire team outlook including changes to the top of the depth chart that matter for Fantasy, a burning question for Fantasy Football managers that needs to be answered, a review of their draft class, strength of schedule, and individual player outlooks for all of the notable Chiefs players who may end up on your Fantasy rosters.
The length of Rashee Rice’s suspension remains uncertain after off-field incidents this offseason. Last season as a rookie, he amassed 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions. However, if his suspension is as lengthy as anticipated, surpassing his rookie numbers seems unlikely. The Chiefs afforded themselves some stability at the wide receiver position when they signed 26-year-old Marquise Brown, who has the speed to stretch defenses vertically but is also capable of consistently getting open on intermediate routes. The Chiefs also drafted the fastest player in the history of the NFL combine in Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs will do their best to integrate him into the offense to take advantage of his 4.21 speed in the 40-yard dash on vertical shots off play-action. Worthy will also likely be targeted on a number of screens, which will only bolster Mahomes’ completion percentage.
By Dave Richard and CBS Fantasy staff
Mahomes will be one of the first quarterbacks, if not the first quarterback, taken in Fantasy drafts. To some, that could be surprising since he was 10th among passers last season with just 20.9 Fantasy points per game. But others who choose to look forward will acknowledge new Chiefs wide receivers Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy as reasons why Mahomes’ numbers could resurge. Both wideouts offer impressive speed and can stretch defenses, perfect for Mahomes to either connect for splash plays or find wide-open options closer to the line of scrimmage. And if Travis Kelce isn’t forced to play through injuries like he did last year, Mahomes’ receiving corps will be quite strong. Frankly, no elite-tier quarterback saw his situation improve more than Mahomes this offseason, a scary thought for his opponents and a magnificent thought for those who have him in their lineups. Mahomes will be a top-three pick in Superflex/two-QB leagues and among the first few quarterbacks off the board between 20th and 35th overall in one-QB formats.
Wentz landed as the backup quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City this season. He played moderately OK in a meaningless Week 18 game against the 49ers last season, perhaps just enough to show that he’d be efficient if pressed into action with the Chiefs. He’s only draftable in two-QB formats as a final-round flier in the unlikely event of Mahomes missing playing time.
In the 15 games Pacheco had at least 15 touches in last season including the playoffs, he scored at least 15 PPR points 10 times. And now it appears Pacheco will be the Chiefs’ primary running back this season without much competition, opening the door for him to keep getting 15-plus touches per week. He’ll benefit greatly from that workload, something Pacheco needs after earning just a 6.6% explosive play rate and 16.4% avoided tackle rate last season, both below average among qualifying rushers. Any improvement to his efficiency will make him an outstanding Fantasy running back with the potential to put up big numbers regardless of the opponent. That’s why he’s worth targeting around 20th overall in PPR formats (a tad higher in non-PPR) as a must-start RB.
Edwards-Helaire stayed with the Chiefs this offseason and figures to be a complementary back behind Isiah Pacheco on the depth chart. Perhaps he takes over the role left behind by Jerick McKinnon, but he’ll have to compete for it this preseason. At best, Edwards-Helaire is a modest handcuff for Pacheco, and not a necessary one. Expect Edwards-Helaire to get swiped with a late-round pick, if at all.
Prince will compete for a roster spot in Chiefs camp this preseason. The early-downs rusher has a nice blend of speed and size and could become a factor if an opportunity presents itself. That said, he’ll have to first make the final roster and then get that opportunity before Fantasy managers have anything to be excited about. Prince is worth a roster spot in the deepest of Dynasty leagues, not typical redraft leagues.
Bailey, formerly of TCU, has the look of a passing-downs back that the Chiefs might want to hold onto. He’ll compete for a roster spot this preseason after racking up nearly 1,400 total yards and nine total touchdowns in 2023. If he can develop a little more patience as a runner then he’ll have a chance to at least be part of the team, if not eventually earn a part-time role. Only Dynasty leaguers should consider Bailey with a late-round pick.
Former European rugby star Rees-Zammit will compete for a roster spot, if not playing time, this preseason as a running back with the Chiefs. At an international players combine, Rees-Zammit ran the 40-yard-dash in 4.43 seconds. That impressive speed and acceleration were on display in his rugby games, where he’d score by breaking away from tackles and outrunning his competition frequently. The 23-year-old might benefit from the NFL’s new kick-return rules, but he might be able to even find work on offense as the Chiefs depth chart behind Isiah Pacheco isn’t exactly settled. While Rees-Zammit is only worth drafting late in deep Dynasty leagues, don’t be surprised if you hear some buzz about him this preseason.
A suspension is possible for Rice after two off-field incidents, but that’s just part of what’s lowering expectations for his second season. Kansas City wasted little time this offseason adding to its receiving corps both in free agency (Marquise Brown) and the draft (Xavier Worthy with a first-round pick). Both could drag Rice’s target volume down after he averaged 7.6 targets per game from Week 7 through the Super Bowl. That’s especially problematic for Rice, whose average depth of target sank as the season wore on and he had just four games with more than 75 yards, postseason included. Both Brown and Worthy profile as downfield options for the Chiefs and Travis Kelce remains a fixture in the passing game, further making it unlikely for Rice to be more explosive in 2024, especially if his target share shrinks. Tack on a potential suspension and there’s a clear picture of Rice disappointing Fantasy managers this coming season. He’s worth considering once Round 8 starts in PPR (maybe Round 9 in non-PPR), but chances are someone else in your league will draft Rice before then.
Signed to a one-year deal this offseason, the 27-year-old Brown will be in the mix for targets from Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. That sounds amazing but the truth is no single wide receiver has had seven or more targets per game in the two seasons since Tyreek Hill left town. That was even the case when Rashee Rice averaged 6.4 targets per game in 2023 — and that was with minimal competition at wideout. Rice is still a part of the Chiefs and rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy has joined the team too, plus Travis Kelce is still a priority in the offense, making the receiving room crowded when you include Brown. Make no mistake, there have been stretches in each of the past three seasons where Brown’s target volume rose and his Fantasy production was awesome, but those stretches didn’t last. Perhaps there will be another stretch for Brown if Rice isn’t available to start 2024, but even then there’s no guarantee Brown will levitate back to must-start status. Until it’s clear that Rice will miss the start of the season, Brown should be viewed as a good bench receiver worth grabbing in Round 8 in full PPR (a half-round later in non-PPR).
There’s so much more to Worthy besides his record-setting 40-yard-dash time at the NFL combine, which is why Fantasy managers figure to reach for him on Draft Day. Worthy led Texas in receiving yards each of the past three years and dominated not only downfield but also made things happen on short passes via screens and slants. Worthy is a good route-runner with great agility, but he’s lean and figures to struggle with physicality at the NFL level. Truthfully it’s catching passes from Patrick Mahomes that makes him attractive, and while rookie receivers have had a tough time adjusting to Andy Reid’s offense in the past, we’re just one year removed from Rashee Rice thriving as a rookie. Assume Worthy will make it to the Round 8-9 range in redraft leagues unless preseason reports are glowing. He’s worth taking then, just as he’s worth selecting late in Round 1 in all rookie-only formats.
A year ago, Moore was a promising prospect in the Chiefs passing game. Since then he fell out of favor with the team and appears relegated to fighting for a roster spot this preseason. Keep in mind, the Chiefs added veteran Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy this offseason, further narrowing Moore’s chances of contributing to this offense. Moore will need consistent playing time before anyone would consider rostering him again in Fantasy.
Once a prized NFL prospect, Kadarius Toney could be relegated to competing for a roster spot this preseason with the Chiefs. Last year he averaged just 2.9 targets per game on an average depth of 2.95 yards per target. Any excitement Fantasy managers once had about Toney is gone, which is why he shouldn’t be a part of anyone’s Draft Day plans.
Kelce will be one of the first two tight ends drafted in every league because of his big role in the Chiefs offense, but Father Time is working against him. Battling injuries for much of 2023, Kelce averaged 19.5 PPR points per game in his first seven games, then 10.4 PPR points per game in his next eight before rebounding to 21.5 PPR points per game in four playoff matchups, including 18.3 in the Super Bowl. Kansas City’s additions at receiver will hinder Kelce to a degree, but the bigger factor is that he’ll turn 35 years old in October and clearly carries some risk after he started last year with a bone bruise in his knee, played through an ankle injury and then had a minor neck issue sideline him for a game. Even with that risk, Kelce has undeniable upside as evidenced by his start and finish to 2023. Don’t gloss over that. Fantasy managers who want an elite tight end without age and injury concerns will pivot to Sam LaPorta over Kelce, but that doesn’t mean Kelce isn’t worth consideration as a top-30 pick since he’ll still see lots of targets as Patrick Mahomes’ most trusted pass-catcher.
Smith signed with the Chiefs this season, and he will compete for a role as a backup to Travis Kelce. Smith is not worth drafting in most Fantasy leagues. Kansas City has Kelce, Noah Gray and rookie Jared Wiley on the depth chart, so Smith could find it hard to get playing time. He’s also struggled with injuries the past three seasons and has played a combined 20 games since 2020. Last year with the Bengals, Smith had 18 catches for 115 yards and one touchdown on 26 targets in 12 games. If he starts off the season playing well or gets increased playing time from an injury then just add him off waivers during the year.
A fourth-round pick out of TCU, Wiley is a big-bodied target with plus-athleticism. He may have fallen in the draft not only because he lacks quality speed but because he didn’t break out until his fifth year of college football after transferring from Texas. He’s obviously destined to be a backup with the Chiefs until Travis Kelce misses time, and even then he’s not promised anything in terms of playing time. But there’s a chance he eventually fills the Kelce role if he sticks with the Chiefs long enough. Patient Dynasty league managers could swipe Wiley with their last pick.
Butker finished as a top-10 kicker last year and is in position to do so again in 2024. Kansas City’s offense should be more explosive than it’s been in recent seasons, setting up chances for Butker to not only rack up a lot of extra points but also try plenty of field goals. He shouldn’t be one of the first kickers taken, but he’s clearly worth a final-round pick.
Losing cornerback L’Jarius Sneed shouldn’t be enough to dampen the expectations of a Chiefs defense that finished second per game last year in sacks (57), total yards allowed (289.8) and points allowed (16.1). Anchored by a quality front-seven including dangerous D-tackle Chris Jones, the Chiefs tend to have a way of dictating their opponents’ game plans via the scoreboard. If there’s a worry it’s that they open the season against the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons, three offenses with plenty of firepower. But after that they have maybe three or four matchups on the schedule against offenses who can reliably match up with them on the scoreboard. If you can keep the long view in mind, the Chiefs DST are worth taking with one of your last two picks.
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