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One of my favorite pieces to write each preseason is my breakouts article. The reasons should be obvious, these articles are inherently optimistic while at the same time being extremely valuable. Also, I am a projections guy, often leaning on what the math says should happen, breakouts don’t require math either. Winning in Fantasy Football is not that complicated, you have to find a couple of that year’s league-winning players, which is inherent to being a breakout.
As Adam Aizer describes it, sleepers win you weeks and breakout win you leagues. I’m not sure he got that exactly right, but I would agree with the second part. Unlike busts and sleepers, breakouts are completely independent of ADP. As Aizer says, they are guys who win you leagues, and they do so by having career years. Three guys on the same team are lined up for potential career years, and they’re all potential breakouts, so let’s start with the Atlanta Falcons.
The 2024 Falcons offense is about as close to a mystery box as a team could be. They have a new head coach whose background is as a defensive coordinator, a first-time offensive coordinator who has never called plays, and a new quarterback who tore his Achilles a little more than eight months ago. We’re hopeful that combination will be better, and more pass-heavy than Arthur Smith has been with his merry-go-round of QBs, but there are certainly no guarantees. What I can guarantee is that Bijan Robinson and Drake London are two of the most popular breakout candidates in Fantasy, and Kyle Pitts isn’t far behind.
While it’s not surprising that three former first-round picks still have backers after a collective five or six seasons of failing to meet ADP (depending on how you evaluate Drake London’s rookie season), it is a bit alarming just how confident the industry is on Robinson and London.
In our current PPR ADP, Bijan Robinson is the fourth overall pick and London is Pick 21. London’s best per-game finish is WR42 and Robinson was RB16 last year. And you won’t find hardly anyone who will argue against either.
In one sense, I expect all three of Robinson, London, and Pitts to break out. I am projecting them for the best year of their career, both per game and overall. But the only one I actually project as a league-winner is Robinson. My projections have him with 342 touches for 1,828 yards from scrimmage and 11.3 touchdowns. That makes him RB3 in projections, 36 points better than RB, Jonathan Taylor. And I don’t think that’s his upside.
Robinson’s upside, simply put, involves him being the best running back in football, and the best player in Fantasy Football, with more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and more than 20 touchdowns. The best of Christian McCaffrey is attainable, and Robinson and Hall are the only two backs I can say that about with a straight face. He’s more insulated from risk than London and Pitts. If Cousins isn’t quite cousins, Robinson may be even better. Whether the offense trends pass heavy or run heavy, their running back will be heavily featured. In short, I agree with his ADP, he’s the closest thing you can get to a guaranteed breakout.
I view London more like Pitts. An elite talent, with immense upside, but nearly as much risk. Neither is guaranteed to be the best pass catcher on the team, and questions about the quarterback and the pass rate will impact their upside. If everything goes right, either could be a league winner, but it’s very unlikely both will be. If I had to pick one, it’s Pitts, because he goes 40 picks later and plays a position that is far more scarce. As for wide receivers, I prefer the three names below if you’re looking for a breakout league winner.
Here are eight more of my favorite breakouts for 2024. I’ll give you my projections for each, and just how high I think their upside is.
Projection: 3,808 pass yards, 617 rush yards, 31.1 total TD, QB9
For the most part, projections are not going to be the place you look to point out league-winning upside, and Richardson is no different. But you can see the path through the projections. It starts with Richardson’s awareness in the pocket, which pleased me in the small sample last year. That combined with their pass rate when he played leads me to believe 4,000 yards is legitimately possible. And that 617-yard rushing projection is nowhere close to his upside. 4,000/1,000 is too ourageous to say out loud, but it’s not impossible. The final piece is the pass TD rate. 10 of the 31 touchdowns I project for Richardson are rushing. If he throws 25-30, he has a legitimate chance at QB1 overall.
Projection: 362 touches, 1,879 scrimmage yards, 11.7 TD, RB2
Almost everything I said about Robinson applies to Hall and I would take Hall one pick earlier. And yes, he was RB2 overall last year, but with 300 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns than I’m projecting this year. We expect the offensive line to be better and we expect Aaron Rodgers to be an upgrade over the quarterbacks Hall has played with the past two seasons. Like Robinson, I would not be surprised at all if Hall broke Fantasy and finished as RB1 this season.
Projection: 288 touches, 1,644 scrimmage yards, 8 TD, RB7
Do you want to talk about Cook’s upside? Start with his workload in nine games with OC Joe Brady calling plays. That 17-game projection is for 289 rush attempts and 66 targets. Now factor in that he’s averaged an elite 5.0 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per target in his career. In case you don’t want to do the math from home, that’s 1,926 total yards. A ridiculous projection, for sure, but not an unattainable upside. The real upside comes from the rushing TDs. He had two on 89 carries in 2022, and two on 237 in 2023. he probably needs six to be a top-five running back with the workload we expect this year. I believe he can do it.
Projection: 92 catches for 1,117 yards and 8.9 TD on 162 targets, WR9
If Bijan Robinson is not the free space breakout then Garrett Wilson is. We’re drafting him at the end of Round 1 and I don’t believe it’s far-fetched to say he has WR1 overall upside. Aaron Rodgers has often targeted his number one wide receiver at a rate of 10 targets per game or higher and Wilson has already shown the ability to earn that volume. It’s just difficult to know how much to bump his efficiency because it has understandably been pedestrian. If he can approach nine yards per target and match Rodgers’ career six percent TD rate then Wilson will be in the conversation with Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb for WR1.
Projection: 96 catches for 1,143 yards, and 7.1 TD, WR10
Like Wilson, Harrison is another former Buckeye that I have no problem projecting as a future number one wide receiver overall. It probably won’t happen his rookie season, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. Harrison should be the clear top wideout in targets and we’ve already seen Kyler Murray lock in on his WR1 when he had one. In his first year in Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins earned a 27.2% target share on a team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Harrison could hit that mark as a rookie, but truly hitting his ceiling will depend on red zone production and just how efficient he can be. He averaged 16.9 yards per reception in three years at Ohio State.
Projection: 76 catches for 1,144 yards and 7.5 TD, WR17
Last year George Pickens accounted for 33.3% of the Steelers’ receiving yards and 38.4%. Since then, the team has added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields while losing Diontae Johnson. If you’re thinking in your head “Yeah, but Arthur Smith” know that Smith’s Falcons threw the ball more than the Steelers did last year and that Pickens’ offensive coordinator last year was Matt Canada. Want to talk about upside? In four games without Johnson last year, Pickens was on pace for 72 catches for 1,517 yards and that doesn’t include his top two yardage games last year. Top 12 is not out of consideration, especially if Russell Wilson keeps throwing touchdowns at a high rate.
Projection: 99 catches for 979 yards and 5.3 TD, TE2
Hopefully, the projections for McBride and Harrison show that both players can be a breakout this season. And it’s worth noting that McBride projects as my number two tight end, I actually rank him number one because of Travis Kelce’s advanced age. This is great, because he’s the fourth tight end off the board by ADP, even falling behind Dalton Kincaid on occasion. The upside comes from three potential places. One, he’s a third-year player so he could just play better, two he could have a high touchdown season, or three his efficiency and catch rate could spike because Kyler Murray is fully recovered from his injury and no longer rusty. In his final 10 games last year, McBride was on pace for 112 catches and 1,114 yards. How’s that for upside?
Projection: 79 catches for 723 yards and 5.3 TD, TE9
So the numbers above would count as a career year for Kincaid, but not a league-winning variety. Everyone else seems to see that more clearly than I do, which puts Kincaid closer to Drake London in this column than everyone else. Still, he plays with Josh Allen and there is no surefire WR1 on the roster. I can’t really even say there’s a plausible WR1 at this time. That leaves Kincaid in a place where he could lead the team in targets, which automatically makes someone a breakout candidate. The next step is earning a bigger red zone role, and hopefully seeing Allen’s rushing TDs regress. I rank Kincaid at TE6, higher than his projection, but he has the upside to finish even higher than that.
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