If you’ve long been a fan of professional and fantasy football, you probably know that it can oftentimes be difficult to predict. Very difficult. I always tell people that “the only thing that’s predictable about the NFL is that its wildly unpredictability.”
That statement is true every single season.
Remember how we all thought the Buccaneers offense was in trouble last year with Baker Mayfield taking over for Tom Brady? Well, we know how that turned out. Mayfield was solid, finishing as the QB10, and Mike Evans had one of his best fantasy seasons.
Oh, and raise your hand if you predicted rookie C.J. Stroud would finish with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes. Or, that another upstart rookie, Sam LaPorta, would usurp superstar and first-round pick Travis Kelce as the top fantasy tight end.
I don’t see any hands!
So, which scenarios that have been widely predicted heading into the upcoming season would have the biggest fantasy impact if ultimately proven to be wrong?
Here are my top 10 “What If?” scenarios that could affect your 2024 fantasy teams.
McCaffrey is the consensus top overall fantasy pick after posting two consecutive monster seasons. However, superstitious managers might be concerned knowing that the last four consensus top fantasy picks, including McCaffrey twice, have gotten hurt and finished no better than 33rd in points at their position. That includes Jonathan Taylor back in 2022 and Justin Jefferson last season. McCaffrey is also on the cover of the latest edition of the Madden video game, which has often resulted in the athlete dealing with injuries or a down statistical season. Some people might think such things are ridiculous, but the trend is notable nonetheless.
The popular opinion surrounding Jefferson is that he’s lost at least some of his luster with Cousins gone. In his place, the Vikings will start a journeyman in Sam Darnold or a rookie in J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. That reality has dropped Jefferson down to the seventh overall pick based on average draft position data at the National Fantasy Football Championships. We should keep in mind, however, that Jefferson still averaged a solid 18 points in games Cousins missed in 2023. In those contests, the starter was most often Nick Mullens. So, Jefferson could ultimately become a draft bargain at season’s end.
Speaking of Cousins, what if the soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback struggles to duplicate his past success? After all, a torn Achilles is a tough injury to return from. I’d also keep this in mind … in his last three full seasons, Cousins has averaged 300 fantasy points. During the Super Bowl era, only eight quarterbacks aged 36 or older scored more than 300 points in a single season. That includes Hall of Famers and former superstars like Peyton Manning (3), Tom Brady (3), Drew Brees (3), Aaron Rodgers (2), Steve Young (1), Ben Roethlisberger (1), Carson Palmer (1) and Rich Gannon (1).
Fantasy managers should also keep in mind that any struggles Cousins might endure could also have a negative effect on the players around him, most notably Drake London and Kyle Pitts. This scenario is similar to the one Rodgers faces in New York, as he’s also returning from a torn Achilles with other players' values dependent on him … and he’s 40 years old.
Gibbs is locked and loaded as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts based on his stats down the stretch of his rookie season. Also, most analysts expect him to separate himself from Montgomery in terms of touches. But what if that doesn’t happen? After all, this duo split touches almost completely down the middle last season. Montgomery was effective too, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and scoring 13 touchdowns. He didn’t do anything to lose work based on stats, so what if he ultimately doesn’t? Would Gibbs still be worth a first-round pick if he’s still at least slightly limited in a split backfield committee?
Nacua came out of absolute nowhere last season to produce one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time among wide receivers. He set a rookie record with 1,486 yards, and his success has vaulted him into the first-round of 2024 fantasy drafts. It was truly what I call a “magical” season, and that’s what makes me nervous about his sophomore season. Are we drafting Nacua based on his ceiling season? And what if Cooper Kupp stays healthy? Those are important questions that fantasy fans must ask themselves.
Much like Nacua, LaPorta came out of nowhere to become the best tight end in fantasy football. He was so impressive, in fact, that he’s now ranked first, ahead of Travis Kelce, among 2024 fantasy tight ends. As a fantasy community, we love his youth and the Lions offense more than we love the aging but still productive Kelce, who seems to make more news these days because of his girlfriend, music icon Taylor Swift.
However, what if I told you that LaPorta is one of only six tight ends in the Super Bowl era to have 700-plus yards as a rookie, and all the others saw their yardage decline the following year? Charle Young (1973) went from 854 yards down to 696 yards, and Keith Jackson (1988) dropped from 869 yards to 648 yards. Jeremy Shockey (2002) had 894 yards as a rookie, but only 535 the following year. Evan Engram (2017) went from 722 yards to 577 yards, and Kyle Pitts (2021) dropped from 1,026 yards to 356. If LaPorta follows this trend, he would have a tough time holding the same value he had during this first year.
I mentioned this is my 10 Bold Predictions for 2024, and it’s a scary thought. While I don’t see it happening, who saw Stroud finishing as the QB9 last season, or Jordan Love and Brock Purdy scoring more points than Mahomes? Again, weird stuff happens all the time. And if Stroud can’t meet his lofty statistical expectations, it would mean the entire Texans offense could disappoint. I’m not buying it, but anything can happen.
Brooks, a second-round pick out of Texas, is widely considered to be the favorite to start for the Panthers. He is coming off a torn ACL, however, and the roster still includes veterans Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Still, Brooks is miles ahead of both new teammates in terms of average draft position. In fact, he’s being picked about 50 spots ahead of Hubbard. A committee is certainly still a possibility, however, especially if the team decides to bring Brooks along slowly, and Hubbard has shown he can be a relatively effective pro.
I have written about the reasons Herbert could be a disappointment this season, due in large part to the history of Roman’s past offenses. Of course, Roman hasn’t had such a prolific passer in any of his past stops around the league as an offensive coordinator. Does this mean we’ll see an altered version of his system, one that allows Herbert to use his powerful right arm at the same frequency as in seasons past? If he does, Herbert could end up being a decent draft bargain based on his current average draft position.
Fantasy fans are putting a lot of faith in Williams to come in and make a quick impact. After all, he’ll have an abundance of weapons in D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee anything. We also must keep in mind that rookie quarterbacks don’t typically post huge fantasy totals (Stroud was a historical outlier).
In the Super Bowl era, just 10 rookie quarterbacks have finished with 3,500-plus passing yards and a mere five have thrown for 24 or more touchdowns. Furthermore, a first-year field general has scored more than 250 fantasy points just nine times. Digging even deeper, no USC quarterback has scored more than 168.4 points as a rookie (Sam Darnold), and no Bears rookie signal-caller has finished with more than 134.5 points (Mitchell Trubisky).
If there’s a bright side, it’s that 13 rookie quarterbacks have averaged 17-plus fantasy points (minimum 10 starts) in the Super Bowl era, and 10 of them have come since 2015. And based on the level of talent around him compared to those other quarterbacks, Williams should have a tremendous advantage. Stil, he must perform on the field. If he falters, it could make Moore, Allen and company a lot less reliable in the stat sheets.
MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Formerly of CBS Sports, NFL Network and SirusXM, Michael was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks. His work can now be found on SI, Westwood One Radio and the Bleav Podcast Network.
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