Miami and Iowa State face off in the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday in an ACC vs. Big 12 battle of former playoff hopefuls. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Miami started the year 9-0 and looked like a clear College Football Playoff contender, but lost two of its final three games, including its regular season finale against Syracuse that kept it from playing for the ACC championship.
It appears Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward will play in the game, an enormous advantage as he helped lead the offense to its historic passing production this past season.
Iowa State began the season a perfect 7-0 and despite two costly losses late in the year, it still played for the Big 12 title, where it lost to eventual champion Arizona State.
The Cyclones play some solid pass defense and fielded its first-ever pair of 1,000-yard receivers while winning 10 games for the first time in program history.
What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Hurricanes and Cyclones meet in the postseason?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Iowa State compare in college football’s Pop-Tarts Bowl game.
So far, the models are putting a lot of confidence in the Hurricanes over the Cyclones.
SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 35 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 12.8 points in the contest.
The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 79 percent chance of victory over the Cyclones.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.
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Miami is a 3.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -176 and for Iowa State at +146 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
That would put you in the majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Hurricanes will handle the Cyclones, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Miami is getting 61 percent of bets to cover the narrow point spread.
The other 39 percent of wagers project Iowa State will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the game to a field goal or less in defeat.
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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
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When: Sat., Dec. 28
Where: Orlando, Fla.
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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